Feasibility of Adapting VisionEval for Scenario Planning

Scenario planning is designed to address uncertainty; for example, in a travel demand model, one might be uncertain as to the population of a location 20 years hence and thus might represent this variation by executing the model twice—once with a lower but plausible population value and once with a higher population value. A problem is that scenario planning can be quite time consuming and difficult, especially if there is uncertainty regarding inputs such as future changes in technology. Virginia is presently a participant in a pooled-fund study that is developing a tool called VisionEval, which is a “strategic model” designed to help with long-term visioning (such as alternative policies, different funding scenarios, or ways to increase network resilience) This research would determine the costs, benefits, and suitability of applying a tool such as VisionEval to scenario planning in Virginia.