Incorporating Shock Events into Traffic and Forecasting and Airport Planning

Airport activity forecasting and planning traditionally assume gradual and incremental change (e.g., rising traffic levels as the economy grows), but it is arguable that infrequent one-off events, such as the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, and most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic, have had as much impact on airport development as macroeconomic conditions. While the industry has adapted to these events and traffic eventually continued to grow, the impacts for many airports have been profound and long-lived. These impacts have typically included a significant change in or loss of air service and new passenger processing requirements. Impacts have not been uniform, affecting some airports more than others. ACRP Report 76: Addressing Uncertainty about Future Airport Activity Levels in Airport Decision Making, published in 2012, included an initial discussion about how rare or high-impact events might be considered in forecasting and planning. However, the report identified, and subsequent events have confirmed, a need for additional research and guidance due to their potential for significant impacts on demand as well as on facility and financial planning. The objective of this research is to provide guidelines to help airports address large-scale, unpredictable shock events into traffic forecasting and airport facility and financial planning.


  • English


  • Status: Proposed
  • Funding: $450000
  • Contract Numbers:

    Project 03-60

  • Sponsor Organizations:

    Airport Cooperative Research Program

    Transportation Research Board
    500 Fifth Street, NW
    Washington, DC    20001

    Federal Aviation Administration

    800 Independence Avenue, SW
    Washington, DC  United States  20591
  • Project Managers:

    Griffin, Matthew

  • Start Date: 20200818
  • Expected Completion Date: 0
  • Actual Completion Date: 0

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01748074
  • Record Type: Research project
  • Source Agency: Transportation Research Board
  • Contract Numbers: Project 03-60
  • Files: TRB, RiP
  • Created Date: Aug 17 2020 3:04PM