Flood-Frequency Analysis in the Midwest: Addressing Potential Nonstationary Annual Peak-Flow Records

The overall goal of this study is to evaluate the combined effects of multidecadal climatic persistence (including hydroclimatic shifts), gradual climate change, and land-use change on peak-flow frequency analyses in the multi-state region in the Midwest. This study is intended to provide a framework for addressing potential nonstationarity issues in statewide flood-frequency updates that commonly are conducted by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with state DOTs throughout the nation on an ongoing basis. This will be achieved through the following primary objectives: (1) Define spatial and temporal characteristics of climatic persistence/change affecting annual peak flows in the multi-state region. (2) Develop and apply a statistical methodology for estimating changes in peak-flow frequency distributions in the multi-state region in relation to climatic persistence/change and urbanization; the effects of rural and land-use change will only be investigated in an exploratory manner. (3) Investigate methods for addressing regional climatic persistence/change and land-use change in peak-flow frequency analysis. To the extent possible, estimates of trend-adjusted flood magnitudes for various exceedance levels (such as the 10-percent or 1-percent annual exceedance probability) will be provided for comparison to previously published estimates.


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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01747750
  • Record Type: Research project
  • Source Agency: Federal Highway Administration
  • Contract Numbers: TPF-5(460)
  • Created Date: Aug 12 2020 3:17PM