National Impacts of E-commerce Growth-Development of a Spatial Demand Based Tool

Last-mile distribution is costly and a major contributor to greenhouse gases. These distribution operations have been increasing due to a shift in purchasing behaviors, and will continue to grow in the coming years and decades. Specifically, the sheer number of purchases using online channels (e-commerce) has been growing considerably. However, the current and future impacts of e-commerce are not fully understood. While researchers have identified conditions in which e-commerce could help reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and emissions due to the substitution of shopping trips with aggregated truck deliveries, there are many instances and behaviors (e.g., rush deliveries) that can result in large disadvantages. Furthermore, there are uncertainties about the geographic concentration of the increased e-commerce activity, and the potential temporal changes in shopping behaviors that could affect the growth of e-commerce demand and the associated freight activity. This study addresses the questions: (1) How much will e-commerce grow? (2) Will the growth be consistent across locations and demographics? (3) What are the impacts on the transportation system? In doing so, this study will develop a tool to estimate VMT and emissions from varying e-commerce scenarios (e.g. electrification, automation) for different geographic and temporal frames using behavioral, time series and approximate transportation demand models.

Language

  • English

Project

  • Status: Programmed
  • Funding: $121250
  • Contract Numbers:

    DOT 69A3551747114

  • Sponsor Organizations:

    National Center for Sustainable Transportation

    University of California, Davis
    Davis, CA  United States 

    Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

    University Transportation Centers Program
    Department of Transportation
    Washington, DC  United States  20590
  • Managing Organizations:

    National Center for Sustainable Transportation

    University of California, Davis
    Davis, CA  United States 

    University of California, Davis

    Institute of Transportation Studies
    Davis, CA  United States  95616
  • Project Managers:

    Iacobucci, Lauren

  • Performing Organizations:

    University of California, Davis

    Institute of Transportation Studies
    Davis, CA  United States  95616
  • Principal Investigators:

    Jaller, Miguel

  • Start Date: 20201001
  • Expected Completion Date: 20210930
  • Actual Completion Date: 0
  • USDOT Program: University Transportation Centers

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01742553
  • Record Type: Research project
  • Source Agency: National Center for Sustainable Transportation
  • Contract Numbers: DOT 69A3551747114
  • Files: UTC, RiP
  • Created Date: Jun 16 2020 1:19PM