Adoption and Diffusion of Electric Vehicles in Maryland

Driven by environmental awareness and new regulations for fuel efficiency, electric vehicles (EVs) have significantly evolved in the last decade. Although EV penetration has been slow so far, substantial increases in sales have been observed. This is particularly true in the U.S., where cumulative sales reached 1.44 million units sold in January 2019. Therefore, reliable predictions are needed as a basis for strategic decisions for both private companies and public policies in favor of EVs. Forecasting the demand for EVs is a difficult task, and the predictions published so far either haven fallen short or have been too optimistic. This research project proposes an innovative approach that is mainly based on three concepts: (1) Substitution: Which may happen by replacing an Internal Combustion Vehicle (ICV) - gasoline or any other engine - with an EV. (2) Diffusion: The approach is based on the classic Bass models and its extensions for which new technology is first adopted by a subgroup of innovators, who are followed by imitators. (3) Dynamics: Diffusion not only depends on the context at a particular moment but also on what occurred in the previous periods.


  • English


  • Status: Completed
  • Funding: $100000
  • Contract Numbers:


  • Sponsor Organizations:

    Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

    University Transportation Centers Program
    Department of Transportation
    Washington, DC  United States  20590
  • Managing Organizations:

    Urban Mobility & Equity Center

    Morgan State University
    Baltimore, MD  United States  21251
  • Performing Organizations:

    University of Maryland, College Park

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
    College Park, MD  United States  20742
  • Principal Investigators:

    Cirillo, Cinzia

  • Start Date: 20200701
  • Expected Completion Date: 20210630
  • Actual Completion Date: 20210630
  • USDOT Program: University Transportation Centers Program

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01742333
  • Record Type: Research project
  • Source Agency: Urban Mobility & Equity Center
  • Contract Numbers: 69A43551747123
  • Files: UTC, RIP
  • Created Date: Jun 11 2020 12:50PM