Epidemiological Models for Transportation Applications: Secondary Crashes

Highway crashes can have an immediate and significant impact on the mobility of individuals and goods traveling within the area. Crashes that occur as a result of an initial or primary crash are known as secondary crashes. Estimates suggest that nearly ten percent of freeway crashes can be classified as secondary. These secondary crashes are exceptionally dangerous for the victims of the primary crash and the first responders dispatched to support them. Understanding why secondary crashes occur and predicting where and when secondary crashes are more likely can significantly improve emergency response and protect vulnerable road users such as primary crash victims and emergency responders. The research team will introduce a new paradigm in modeling this problem by utilizing the mathematical modeling concepts from epidemiology. In particular, the team will analyze the data on secondary crashes in Florida for the past two years, and develop a self-excitation point process model for spatial and temporal distribution of secondary crashes. In addition, the team will develop agent based models for detailed analysis of mitigation strategies. The team will use this combination of models to analyze and suggest effective policies to the transportation and emergency response policymakers.

Language

• English

Project

• Status: Completed
• Funding: $150000
• Contract Numbers:

  69A3551747125

• Sponsor Organizations:

  Center for Advanced Transportation Mobility

  North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University
  Greensboro, NC  United States  27411

  Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

  University Transportation Centers Program
  Department of Transportation
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Project Managers:

  Namilae, Sirish

• Performing Organizations:

  Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

  600 S. Clyde Morris Boulevard
  Daytona Beach, Fl  United States  32114
• Principal Investigators:

  Namilae, Sirish

  Liu, Dahai

  Parr, Scott

• Start Date: 20200401
• Expected Completion Date: 20220531
• Actual Completion Date: 0
• USDOT Program: University Transportation Centers Program

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Crash analysis; Crash data; Epidemiology; Mathematical models; Secondary crashes; Spatial analysis; Time
• Geographic Terms: Florida
• Subject Areas: Highways; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01739393
• Record Type: Research project
• Source Agency: Center for Advanced Transportation Mobility
• Contract Numbers: 69A3551747125
• Files: UTC, RIP
• Created Date: May 15 2020 5:01PM