Multiscale model for hurricane evacuation and fuel shortage

The high volume mass evacuations, disruptions to the fuel supply chain, long distances travelled by evacuees, fuel hording from non-evacuees have all led to localized fuel shortages lasting several days in recent hurricanes including Irma, Florence and Michael. Fuel shortages further exacerbate safe evacuation of residents in affected areas. A predictive model of fuel shortages during hurricane combined with on-ground traffic and fuel shortage data can be an effective too in providing policy suggestions for both effective evacuation and back-up fuel storage locations. The research team proposes a computational model at multiple scales for this purpose including: 1) Compartmental stochastic epidemic spread model for fuel shortages at city and state level; 2) Traffic data from past hurricanes (e.g. Irma and Florence), combined with a Monte Carlo fuel consumption model to estimate fuel usage; 3) Self-excitation point process model to delineate and estimate baseline and contagious fuel consumption; 4) Agent based discrete event simulation model for detailed analysis; and 5) Policy analysis based on the above models. The project outcome will be a predictive capability for fuel shortages in the event of future hurricanes which can be used for effective policy analysis for enabling effective hurricane evacuations.


    • English


    • Status: Active
    • Funding: $135000
    • Sponsor Organizations:

      Center for Advanced Transportation Mobility

      North Carolina A&T State University
      1601 E. Market Street
      Greensboro, NC  United States  27411

      Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

      University Transportation Centers Program
      Department of Transportation
      Washington, DC  United States  20590
    • Project Managers:

      Namilae, Sirish

    • Performing Organizations:

      Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

      600 S. Clyde Morris Boulevard
      Daytona Beach, Fl  United States  32114
    • Principal Investigators:

      Namilae, Sirish

      Liu, Dahai

      Parr, Scott

    • Start Date: 20190201
    • Expected Completion Date: 20200731
    • Actual Completion Date: 20210630
    • USDOT Program: University Transportation Centers Program

    Subject/Index Terms

    Filing Info

    • Accession Number: 01708117
    • Record Type: Research project
    • Source Agency: Center for Advanced Transportation Mobility
    • Files: UTC, RIP
    • Created Date: Jun 19 2019 11:15AM