Development of a Statistical Model to Predict Materials' Unit Prices for Future Maintenance and Rehabilitation in Highway Life Cycle Cost Analysis

The cost calculation module of the existing Caltrans’ RealCost life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) software requires a unit price per material to calculate the agency costs of future maintenance & rehabilitation (M&R) projects. Caltrans’ LCCA procedure manual guides users to use the statewide flat unit prices as default or find the relevant unit prices from the Caltrans historical contract cost database. However, materials’ unit price may vary over time and other factors. The unit price entered by a user to help calculate the future M&R project cost for a long-term LCCA period, typically 60 years, without considering the variability in unit prices over time may result in inaccurate results. The objectives of this research are to investigate the sensitivity of materials’ unit prices due to external components (project size, climate region, and other socio-economy variables) in the life cycle cost and develop a statistical model to predict material and construction-related cost inputs for future maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) projects to support accurate life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) for California highway projects. The study results will enhance the accuracy and practicality of the highway LCCA results in selecting cost-effective material and construction alternatives.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Contract to a Performing Organization has not yet been awarded.

Language

• English

Project

• Status: Active
• Funding: $79754
• Contract Numbers:

  65A0660

• Sponsor Organizations:

  California Department of Transportation

  1227 O Street
  Sacramento, CA  United States  95843

  Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

  University Transportation Centers Program
  Department of Transportation
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Start Date: 20190101
• Expected Completion Date: 20200531
• Actual Completion Date: 0
• USDOT Program: University Transportation Centers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Accuracy; Construction projects; Forecasting; Highway maintenance; Life cycle costing; Prices; Rehabilitation (Maintenance); Statistical analysis
• Identifier Terms: California Department of Transportation
• Subject Areas: Construction; Finance; Highways; Maintenance and Preservation; Materials; Planning and Forecasting;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01696592
• Record Type: Research project
• Source Agency: Mineta Consortium for Transportation Mobility
• Contract Numbers: 65A0660
• Files: UTC, RiP
• Created Date: Feb 27 2019 2:09PM