Land Use and Transportation Policies for a Sustainable Future with Autonomous Vehicles: Scenario Analysis with Simulations

Even though there are tremendous uncertainties in the timing and evolution path of the Autonomous Vehicles (AV) technology, it may become a likely reality within most metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) long-range regional transportation plan horizons of twenty years. Yet a recent survey of largest MPOs in the US indicates only one of them "even mentions driverless, automated, or autonomous vehicles in its most recent RTP" (Guerra, 2016 page 211). One of the uncertainties in assessing the impacts of AV is their direction: on one hand, self-driving cars could increase vehicle miles of travel (VMT) by increasing roadway capacity, lowering costs of travel; on the other, they may reduce VMT by enabling more car-sharing, improving access to transit, eliminating the fixed costs of car ownership, and reclaiming parking space. To date, there is no suitable conceptual framework or modeling tools available to MPOs for quantitatively assessing the likely long-term effects of AV or potential policy scenarios. Built on a phase I research project funded by NITC studying emerging transportation modes including AV, this proposal will investigate long-term travel and land use outcomes in response to various policy and technology scenarios by simulations with an aim of identifying policy scenarios that help promote sustainable and equitable future patterns of travel and land use. The products of the project include working papers and conference presentations of the methodology and outcomes of the scenario simulations, as well as an open source software tool that will be made available to researchers and practitioners to create and run simulations of their own scenarios. This project touches upon three of NITC's sub-themes for the goal of improving the mobility of people and goods to build strong communities. In particular, it helps advance innovations and smart cities and develops data, models, and tools for assessing the likely impacts of AV with the goal of identifying policies that shape the evolution of the AV technology and builds sustainable and equitable communities.

• Record URL:
  https://nitc.trec.pdx.edu/research/project/1242

Language

• English

Project

• Status: Active
• Funding: $310342
• Contract Numbers:

  NITC 1242

• Sponsor Organizations:

  Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

  University Transportation Centers Program
  Department of Transportation
  Washington, DC  United States  20590

  Portland State University

  Urban Studies and Planning
  P.O. Box 751
  Portland, Oregon  United States  97207

  Metro

  600 NE Grand Ave.
  Portland, OR  United States  97232-2736

  Oregon Department of Transportation

  555 13th Street NE
  Salem, OR  United States  97301

  TREC at Portland State University

  1900 SW Fourth Ave, Suite 175
  P.O. Box 751
  Portland, Oregon  United States  97201

  City of Tucson

  Department of Transportation
  PO Box 27210
  Tucson, Arizona  United States  85726-7210

  Pima County Traffic Engineering

  Tucson, AZ  United States 

  Institute for Sustainable Solutions

  Portland State University
  Portland, Oregon  United States  97201
• Managing Organizations:

  TREC at Portland State University

  1900 SW Fourth Ave, Suite 175
  P.O. Box 751
  Portland, Oregon  United States  97201
• Project Managers:

  Hagedorn, Hau

• Performing Organizations:

  Portland State University

  Urban Studies and Planning
  P.O. Box 751
  Portland, Oregon  United States  97207

  University of Arizona

  College of Engineering
  1209 East 2nd Street
  Tucson, AZ  United States  85721
• Principal Investigators:

  Wang, Liming

  Wu, Yao-Jan

• Start Date: 20180815
• Expected Completion Date: 20200930
• Actual Completion Date: 0
• USDOT Program: University Transportation Centers Program

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Forecasting; Intelligent vehicles; Land use; Metropolitan planning organizations; Simulation; Software; Transportation policy
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01674839
• Record Type: Research project
• Source Agency: National Institute for Transportation and Communities
• Contract Numbers: NITC 1242
• Files: UTC, RiP
• Created Date: Jul 5 2018 2:33PM