Land Use and Transportation Policies for a Sustainable Future with Autonomous Vehicles: Scenario Analysis with Simulations

Even though there are tremendous uncertainties in the timing and evolution path of the Autonomous Vehicles (AV) technology, it may become a likely reality within most metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) long-range regional transportation plan horizons of twenty years. Yet a recent survey of largest MPOs in the US indicates only one of them "even mentions driverless, automated, or autonomous vehicles in its most recent RTP" (Guerra, 2016 page 211). One of the uncertainties in assessing the impacts of AV is their direction: on one hand, self-driving cars could increase vehicle miles of travel (VMT) by increasing roadway capacity, lowering costs of travel; on the other, they may reduce VMT by enabling more car-sharing, improving access to transit, eliminating the fixed costs of car ownership, and reclaiming parking space. To date, there is no suitable conceptual framework or modeling tools available to MPOs for quantitatively assessing the likely long-term effects of AV or potential policy scenarios. Built on a phase I research project funded by NITC studying emerging transportation modes including AV, this proposal will investigate long-term travel and land use outcomes in response to various policy and technology scenarios by simulations with an aim of identifying policy scenarios that help promote sustainable and equitable future patterns of travel and land use. The products of the project include working papers and conference presentations of the methodology and outcomes of the scenario simulations, as well as an open source software tool that will be made available to researchers and practitioners to create and run simulations of their own scenarios. This project touches upon three of NITC's sub-themes for the goal of improving the mobility of people and goods to build strong communities. In particular, it helps advance innovations and smart cities and develops data, models, and tools for assessing the likely impacts of AV with the goal of identifying policies that shape the evolution of the AV technology and builds sustainable and equitable communities.

Language

  • English

Project

  • Status: Active
  • Funding: $310342
  • Contract Numbers:

    NITC 1242

  • Sponsor Organizations:

    Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

    University Transportation Centers Program
    Department of Transportation
    Washington, DC  United States  20590

    Portland State University

    Urban Studies and Planning
    P.O. Box 751
    Portland, Oregon  United States  97207

    Metro

    600 NE Grand Ave.
    Portland, OR  United States  97232-2736

    Oregon Department of Transportation

    555 13th Street NE
    Salem, OR  United States  97301

    TREC at Portland State University

    1900 SW Fourth Ave, Suite 175
    P.O. Box 751
    Portland, Oregon  United States  97201

    City of Tucson

    Department of Transportation
    PO Box 27210
    Tucson, Arizona  United States  85726-7210

    Pima County Traffic Engineering

    Tucson, AZ  United States 

    Institute for Sustainable Solutions

    Portland State University
    Portland, Oregon  United States  97201
  • Managing Organizations:

    TREC at Portland State University

    1900 SW Fourth Ave, Suite 175
    P.O. Box 751
    Portland, Oregon  United States  97201
  • Project Managers:

    Hagedorn, Hau

  • Performing Organizations:

    Portland State University

    Urban Studies and Planning
    P.O. Box 751
    Portland, Oregon  United States  97207

    University of Arizona

    College of Engineering
    1209 East 2nd Street
    Tucson, AZ  United States  85721
  • Principal Investigators:

    Wang, Liming

    Wu, Yao-Jan

  • Start Date: 20180815
  • Expected Completion Date: 20191114
  • Actual Completion Date: 0
  • USDOT Program: University Transportation Centers Program

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01674839
  • Record Type: Research project
  • Source Agency: National Institute for Transportation and Communities
  • Contract Numbers: NITC 1242
  • Files: UTC, RiP
  • Created Date: Jul 5 2018 2:33PM