Particle Dynamics Model for Hurricane Evacuation and Fuel Shortage: Model Based Policy Analysis

News reports indicate that evacuation orders were issued to about seven million people from Florida, Georgia and South Carolina for Hurricane Irma. There is evidence for over 430,000 cars evacuating out of New Orleans highways during Hurricane Katrina in 2004. Mass evacuations lead to traffic jams because of high volume, increased road incidents, and due to fuel shortages. Fuel shortages have been witnessed during many recent hurricanes including Katrina, Rita, Harvey and Irma. A microscale model of the evacuation process incorporating individual cars and gas stations can be useful in evaluating the effect of gas shortages and traffic incidents in the evacuation process. In this project, the research team will repurpose a particle dynamics model for this purpose. Large number of automobiles in the evacuation process coupled with variations of random traffic incidents, fuel shortage incidents and policy variations will generate a large parameter space. The team will use massive parallel computing to evaluate this large parameter space and identify opportunities and vulnerabilities that enable effective policy design. The project outcome will be a traffic model of hurricane evacuation that incorporates evolution of fuel level in individual automobiles and refueling stations. The model will be used for effective policy design.


    • English


    • Status: Active
    • Funding: $50000
    • Contract Numbers:


    • Sponsor Organizations:

      Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

      University Transportation Centers Program
      Department of Transportation
      Washington, DC  United States  20590
    • Managing Organizations:

      Center for Advanced Transportation Mobility

      North Carolina A&T State University
      1601 E. Market Street
      Greensboro, NC  United States  27411
    • Performing Organizations:

      Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

      600 S. Clyde Morris Boulevard
      Daytona Beach, Fl  United States  32114
    • Principal Investigators:

      Namilae, Sirish

      Liu, Dahai

    • Start Date: 20180201
    • Expected Completion Date: 20200201
    • Actual Completion Date: 0
    • USDOT Program: University Transportation Centers Program

    Subject/Index Terms

    Filing Info

    • Accession Number: 01664239
    • Record Type: Research project
    • Source Agency: Center for Advanced Transportation Mobility
    • Contract Numbers: 69A3551747125
    • Files: UTC, RiP
    • Created Date: Mar 26 2018 3:44PM