Using Time-Series Analysis to Precisely Identify and Rank Road Hotspots

Over the past decades, many ranking methods have been proposed. However, results vary from method to method, and one of the issues behind ranking is the element of subjectivity. One approach to resolve these issues is the use of combined models. One of the combined models is the Enhanced Empirical Bayesian (EB) method that incorporates the use of the similarity measure based on the Proportion Discordance Ratio (PDR). This model is developed to assess and objectively quantify similarity among road segments based on crash patterns, each of which contains a unique combination of selected crash-related features. The goal of this project is to identify a group of similar road segments for the estimation of road segment safety levels and to identify and rank road hotspots for a particular highway at certain hours of the day and days of the week. Based on this assessment, USDOT can find the root cause of the high risk of crash occurrences, and recommendations can be effectively made on a case-by-case basis to reduce such risk. This project addresses the themes of “Developing Data, Models, and Tools” and “Improving Multi-Modal Planning and Shared Use of Infrastructure”.


  • English


  • Status: Active
  • Contract Numbers:

    NITC 1180

  • Sponsor Organizations:

    Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

    University Transportation Centers Program
    Department of Transportation
    Washington, DC  United States  20590
  • Managing Organizations:

    TREC at Portland State University

    1900 SW Fourth Ave, Suite 175
    P.O. Box 751
    Portland, Oregon  United States  97201
  • Project Managers:

    Hagedorn, Hau

  • Performing Organizations:

    University of Arizona

    College of Architecture, Planning, and Landscape Architecture
    PO Box 210075
    Tucson, AZ  United States  85721
  • Principal Investigators:

    Lee, Alexander

    Lin, Wei

  • Start Date: 20171204
  • Expected Completion Date: 20181205
  • Actual Completion Date: 0
  • USDOT Program: University Transportation Centers Program

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01651398
  • Record Type: Research project
  • Source Agency: National Institute for Transportation and Communities
  • Contract Numbers: NITC 1180
  • Files: UTC, RiP
  • Created Date: Nov 21 2017 7:55PM