A Model System for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimation and Green Policy Evaluation

Energy consumption and pollutant emissions from road transportation have increased significantly in recent decades. In the United States, more than 27% of total Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHGEs) are from the transportation sector. Within the sector, light-­duty vehicles are the largest pollutant sources, accounting for 61% of the total GHGEs [EPA, 2013]. Although mobile sources contribute a large percentage of GHGEs, technology is not yet available to measure and tax emissions for each vehicle [Feng et al., 2005]. Therefore, it is necessary to develop and apply effective and quantitative methodologies to support public authority decision making [Liu et al., 2014] and to analyze the impacts of taxation policies on the reduction of GHGEs. The state-­of-­the-­art in calculating GHGEs from vehicle usage employs either the standard values of conversion that consider lifecycle emissions from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) or the emission rates per miles from the California Air Resources Board (CARB) [Feng et al., 2005, Fullerton, 2005, Fullerton and Gan, 2005, Musti and Kockelman, 2011]. Another method to estimate vehicle GHGEs is to combine demand models and emission simulators such as the EPA’s MOBILE6 Vehicle Emission Modeling Software and Motor Vehicle Emission Software (MOVES), and the EMFAC model developed in California for emissions forecasting. Observing that GHGEs from light-­duty vehicle are closely linked to households’ car holding and driving behaviors, Vyas et al. found that the combination of the number of vehicles owned by a household, vehicle type, and the usage of vehicles is an important determinant of households’ vehicle GHGEs and fuel consumption [Vyas et al., 2012]. They were the first to integrate a household vehicle ownership model with a large activity-­based micro-­simulation system -­ SimAGENT which is able to dynamically estimate vehicle GHGEs at a household-­ level. Following this line of research, this project proposes to combine an integrated discrete-­ continuous car ownership model and MOVES2014 to estimate households’ vehicle GHGEs. The proposed framework can be used to evaluate the impact of different vehicle-­related policies on emission reductions.

Language

  • English

Project

  • Status: Active
  • Funding: $120000
  • Contract Numbers:

    DTRT13-G-UTC30

  • Sponsor Organizations:

    Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

    University Transportation Centers Program
    Department of Transportation
    Washington, DC  United States  20590

    University of Maryland, College Park

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
    College Park, MD  United States  20742
  • Project Managers:

    Zhang, Lei

  • Performing Organizations:

    University of Maryland, College Park

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
    College Park, MD  United States  20742
  • Principal Investigators:

    Cirillo, Cinzia

  • Start Date: 20160101
  • Expected Completion Date: 20161231
  • Actual Completion Date: 20161231

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01590665
  • Record Type: Research project
  • Source Agency: National Transportation Center @ Maryland, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology (OST-R), U.S. Department of Transportation (US DOT)
  • Contract Numbers: DTRT13-G-UTC30
  • Files: UTC, RiP
  • Created Date: Feb 19 2016 1:02PM