Estimating Demand for Intercity Bus Services: A Network Approach

A significant need exists for creating a model to estimate demand for intercity bus services, especially in rural areas. Many states and rural operators are unsure about the potential demand for rural intercity bus service, and many of the existing models are unreliable due to poor data (Fravel et al. 2011). To address this need, a Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) project by Fravel et al. (2011) developed a sketch-planning guide that could be used by state transportation department program managers and both public and private rural intercity bus service providers to forecast demand for rural intercity bus services. The route-level modeling techniques used in this TCRP report provide a useful tool for estimating ridership on rural intercity routes, but it has some limitations. It does not account for through passengers that are using the service simply because it connects to others routes and it is not sensitive to changes in fares or frequency. The model proposed for this study will attempt to address these issues through the use of a regional network model. The intent of the Fravel et al. (2011) study was to develop a tool to help determine ridership on proposed feeder routes, rather than to construct a network model. A network model, however, would be a useful tool that would account for through passengers while estimating route-level demand and would show impacts of service changes and demand changes on the entire network.

• Record URL:
  http://www.nctr.usf.edu/2014/05/estimating-demand-for-intercity-bus-services-a-network-approach/
• Supplemental Notes:
  • The National Center for Transit Research (NCTR) is a Tier 1 University Transportation Center

Language

• English

Project

• Status: Completed
• Funding: $76000
• Contract Numbers:

  DTRT12-G-UTC22

  NDSU 2117-9050-02 A

• Sponsor Organizations:

  National Center for Transit Research

  Center for Urban Transportation Research, University of South Florida
  4202 East Fowler Avenue, CUT 100
  Tampa, FL  United States  33620

  Research and Innovative Technology Administration

  Department of Transportation
  1200 New Jersey Avneue, SE
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Project Managers:

  Volinski, Joel

• Performing Organizations:

  National Center for Transit Research

  Center for Urban Transportation Research, University of South Florida
  4202 East Fowler Avenue, CUT 100
  Tampa, FL  United States  33620

  Research and Innovative Technology Administration

  Department of Transportation
  1200 New Jersey Avneue, SE
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Start Date: 20120801
• Expected Completion Date: 0
• Actual Completion Date: 20151231

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Demand; Estimating; Intercity bus lines; Mathematical models; Ridership; Rural transit
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01587414
• Record Type: Research project
• Source Agency: National Center for Transit Research
• Contract Numbers: DTRT12-G-UTC22, NDSU 2117-9050-02 A
• Files: UTC, RIP
• Created Date: Jan 25 2016 4:30PM