U.S. National and Inter-Regional Travel Demand Analysis: Person-Level Microsimulation Model and Application to High-Speed Rail Demand Forecasting
The objective of this proposed research project is to develop a prototype microsimulation-based national and inter-regional passenger travel demand model for High Speed Rail demand forecasting and other national-level travel analysis. The proposed research represents the first attempt to develop a microsimulation-based national long-distance travel demand for high speed rail and national travel analysis. All major behavioral dimensions of long-distance travel will be considered, except for route choice and network loading that require significant new network data collection/coding efforts and cannot be achieved with the limited budgeted of this project. Compare to the traditional four-step approach, microsimulation-based techniques offer several advantages: (1) It is easier to consider tours, multi-day and multi-stop trips, and intermodal access/egress transfers that are important for long-distance travel modeling; (2) Households and persons are the basic units of analysis, which enables detailed behavioral representations and interactions; and (3) It provides a rich framework in which travel is analyzed as a multi-day, monthly, quarterly, or yearly pattern of behavior, derived from activity participation. There are also significant differences between long-distance trips considered in the proposed microsimulation-based model and trips on a daily/weekly basis represented in metropolitan/state-level tour/activity-based models developed in previous research. For instance, it is often the case that households first choose travel modes for long-distance vacation trips based on travel budget before selecting destinations. Categorization of trip purposes is also different for long-distance trips. Cost of travel for long-distance trips is not just travel disutility, but also includes lodging, food, etc., and the same with the total travel time for long-distance which usually covers not only in-vehicle travel time but also the ingress/egress time, transfer time, and lodge time. The much lower frequency of long-distance travel may also imply a different decision-making process. This research is exploratory in nature, and it is hoped that the final product, the prototype microsimulation-based model, will be able to predict high speed rail travel demand among various OD pairs at the national level.
- Record URL:
Language
- English
Project
- Status: Completed
- Funding: $80000.00
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Contract Numbers:
DTRT13-G-UTC30
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Sponsor Organizations:
National Transportation Center @ Maryland
1173 Glenn L. Martin Hall
University of Maryland
College Park, Maryland United States 20742 -
Project Managers:
Zhang, Lei
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Performing Organizations:
University of Maryland, College Park
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
1173 Glenn Martin Hall
College Park, MD United States 20742 -
Principal Investigators:
Zhang, Lei
- Start Date: 20140101
- Expected Completion Date: 0
- Actual Completion Date: 20141231
- Source Data: RiP Project 37160
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Data collection; Forecasting; High speed rail; Intermodal terminals; Microsimulation; Route choice; Travel costs; Travel demand
- Subject Areas: Economics; Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Railroads;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01575258
- Record Type: Research project
- Source Agency: National Transportation Center @ Maryland
- Contract Numbers: DTRT13-G-UTC30
- Files: UTC, RIP
- Created Date: Sep 1 2015 1:43AM