Understanding and Communicating Reliability of Crash Prediction Models

The objectives of this research were to develop guidelines for: (1) the quantification of the reliability of crash prediction models including crash modification factors and/or functions (CMFs) and safety performance functions (SPFs) for practitioner use; (2) user interpretation of model reliability; and (3) the application of crash prediction models accounting for, but not limited to assumptions, data ranges, and intended and unintended uses. The guidelines were to address the following, at a minimum: Methods to improve the reliability of crash prediction models; Implications of assumptions; Crash Prediction Model validation; Data quality; Use and reliability of calibrations; Combining CMFs; Enhanced accuracy and reliability as a result of increased model complexity; Implications of crash prediction model limitations on safety programs and policy; Effective communication of crash prediction model outputs to a variety of audiences. The guidelines were to include a number of case studies or illustrative examples that demonstrate the quantification and user interpretation of crash prediction models reliability. Examples may illustrate the application of crash prediction models accounting for, but not limited to assumptions, data ranges, and intended and unintended uses. The guidelines were intended to assist practitioners and researchers in addressing the application and understanding and communicating the model outcomes. The research results may be incorporated in a future edition of the AASHTO Highway Safety Manual (HSM).

• Record URL:
  http://apps.trb.org/cmsfeed/TRBNetProjectDisplay.asp?ProjectID=4054

Language

• English

Project

• Status: Completed
• Funding: $300000
• Contract Numbers:

  Project 17-78

• Sponsor Organizations:

  Federal Highway Administration

  1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
  Washington, DC  United States  20590

  American Association of State Highway & Transportation Officials (AASHTO)

  444 North Capitol Street, NW, Suite 225
  Washington, DC  United States  20001

  National Cooperative Highway Research Program

  Transportation Research Board
  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Project Managers:

  Jared, David

• Performing Organizations:

  University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

  Chapel Hill, NC  United States  27514
• Principal Investigators:

  Srinivasan, Raghavan

• Start Date: 20161201
• Expected Completion Date: 20200831
• Actual Completion Date: 20200831
• Source Data: RiP Project 40218

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Annual average daily traffic; Crash modification factors; Crash risk forecasting; Guidelines; High risk locations; Highway safety; Mathematical models; Mathematical prediction; Strategic planning
• Identifier Terms: Highway Safety Manual
• Subject Areas: Design; Highways; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01572382
• Record Type: Research project
• Source Agency: Transportation Research Board
• Contract Numbers: Project 17-78
• Files: TRB, RIP
• Created Date: Aug 7 2015 1:01AM