Understanding and Communicating Reliability of Crash Prediction Models

The objectives of this research are to develop guidance for: (1) the quantification of the reliability of crash prediction models including crash modification factors and/or functions (CMFs) and safety performance functions (SPFs) for practitioner use; (2) user interpretation of model reliability; and (3) the application of crash prediction models accounting for, but not limited to assumptions, data ranges, and intended and unintended uses. The guidance should address the following, at a minimum: (1) Methods to improve the reliability of crash prediction models (2) Implications of assumptions (3) Crash Prediction Model validation (4) Data quality (5) Use and reliability of calibrations (6) Combining CMFs (7) Enhanced accuracy and reliability as a result of increased model complexity (8) Implications of crash prediction model limitations on safety programs and policy (9) Effective communication of crash prediction model outputs to a variety of audiences The guidance should include a number of case studies or illustrative examples that demonstrate the quantification and user interpretation of crash prediction models reliability. Examples may illustrate the application of crash prediction models accounting for, but not limited to assumptions, data ranges, and intended and unintended uses. The guidance is intended to assist practitioners and researchers in addressing the application and understanding and communicating the model outcomes. The research results may be incorporated in a future edition of the AASHTO Highway Safety Manual (HSM).

Language

  • English

Project

  • Status: Active
  • Funding: $300000
  • Contract Numbers:

    Project 17-78

  • Sponsor Organizations:

    Federal Highway Administration

    1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
    Washington, DC  United States  20590

    American Association of State Highway & Transportation Officials (AASHTO)

    444 North Capitol Street, NW, Suite 225
    Washington, DC  United States  20001

    National Cooperative Highway Research Program

    Transportation Research Board
    500 Fifth Street, NW
    Washington, DC  United States  20001
  • Project Managers:

    Jared, David

  • Performing Organizations:

    University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

    Chapel Hill, NC  United States  27514
  • Principal Investigators:

    Srinivasan, Raghavan

  • Start Date: 20161201
  • Expected Completion Date: 20200831
  • Actual Completion Date: 0
  • Source Data: RiP Project 40218

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01572382
  • Record Type: Research project
  • Source Agency: Transportation Research Board
  • Contract Numbers: Project 17-78
  • Files: TRB, RiP
  • Created Date: Aug 7 2015 1:01AM