State-Specific Crash Prediction Models: An Arizona Needs Study

Part C of the AASHTO Highway Safety Manual (HSM) contains the Predictive Method, which provides a procedure to estimate the "expected average crash frequency" of rural two-lane roads, rural multilane highways, and urban and suburban arterials. The Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) provided in the HSM are the basis of the predictive models and were developed from the most complete and consistently available data sets. The general level of crash frequencies may vary substantially from one jurisdiction to another for a variety of reasons. Comparison of default SPF values with base condition sites in Arizona may show the need to develop local SPFs to account for the observed variation. As a result of this variation, research identifying the magnitude and distribution of these variations is needed to determine whether Arizona will utilize a statewide local calibration factor for each SPF or if multiple SPFs to account for varying local conditions.


    • English


    • Status: Completed
    • Funding: $125000.00
    • Contract Numbers:


    • Sponsor Organizations:

      Federal Highway Administration

      1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
      Washington, DC  United States  20590

      Arizona Department of Transportation

      Motor Vehicle Division, 206 S. 17th Avenue
      Phoenix, AZ  United States  85007
    • Project Managers:

      Gurrola, Javier

    • Performing Organizations:

      Kimley-Horn and Associates, Incorporated

      11919 Foundation Place, Suite 200
      Gold River, CA  United States  95670
    • Principal Investigators:

      Colety, Mike

    • Start Date: 20110716
    • Expected Completion Date: 0
    • Actual Completion Date: 20150930
    • Source Data: RiP Project 28699

    Subject/Index Terms

    Filing Info

    • Accession Number: 01566148
    • Record Type: Research project
    • Source Agency: Arizona Department of Transportation
    • Contract Numbers: 704
    • Files: RiP, STATEDOT
    • Created Date: Jun 11 2015 1:02AM