Scenario Discovery for Resilient Urban Systems (or, The Future is "Big Data")

The primary aim of this project is to formalize techniques for representing and propagating uncertainty in integrated land-use and transportation (LUT) models and demonstrate how this more rigorous characterization of uncertainty can lead to more robust and flexible systems, and improve decision-making. The project will first develop and calibrate an "off-the-shelf" LUT simulation tool (Citilabs Cube suite) for the Boston Metropolitan Area employing 2010 data, and then use the model to back-cast to years 1990 and 2000. The project then will enhance the model further by incorporating four basic types of uncertainty that exist in urban system models: exogenous uncertainty (from non-modeled variables), endogenous uncertainty (from model variables), model uncertainty (from its specification or functional form), and intervention uncertainty (from the positive or negative effects of proposed changes to the urban system/model). Once the uncertainty-enhanced model is operational, the project will show a state-of-the-art planning approach which capitalizes on computational power in "the cloud" to farm numerous alternative and uncertain future spaces and mine those futures to identify effective strategies. The project will conceptualize the broad range of possible futures for which the project are planning as "big data," which can be simulated probabilistically or experimentally from the uncertainty-enhanced urban models, and ultimately lead to more resilient interventions.


  • English


  • Status: Active
  • Contract Numbers:



  • Sponsor Organizations:

    Research and Innovative Technology Administration

    University Transportation Centers Program
    1200 New Jersey Avenue
    Washington, DC  United States  20590
  • Start Date: 20131001
  • Expected Completion Date: 0
  • Actual Completion Date: 20180930
  • Source Data: RiP Project 39271

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01557115
  • Record Type: Research project
  • Source Agency: New England University Transportation Center
  • Contract Numbers: DTRT13-G-UTC31, MITR25-17
  • Files: UTC, RiP
  • Created Date: Mar 18 2015 1:00AM