California's 2050 Transportation Context: A Response to Global Warming and Executive Order #S-3-05

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector is a vital part of a coherent global warming response. In order to develop sensible responses, California policy-makers need to understand how the conditions affecting the movement of people and goods will change in the long-term future. Executive Order #S-3-05 calls for California GHG emissions in 2050 to be 80% below 1990 levels. This is a tremendous challenge to the transportation sector. California's responses are made difficult by the lack of information about likely market conditions, technological innovation, and the Federal regulatory conditions in the 2050 time frame. This project will provide research that begins to address these questions and leads to a second proposed phase for a Delphi panel that will provide the best predictions of the transportation sector's future carbon footprint. The project will examine trends in (i) transportation economics (e.g., carbon based fuel costs, vehicle technology, congestion impacts, trade), (ii) technological innovation that affect the vehicle fleet and travel demand, and (iii) the evolving Federal and international regulatory framework (e.g., possible carbon based fuel taxes, transportation pricing, investment strategies, etc). For this seed grant, information would be developed through a preliminary literature review that will frame the issues and the focus of the proposed subsequent Delphi panel. A Delphi panel is an iterative prediction process that will help transportation, energy, and policy experts converge on consensus predictions about the future. The Delphi panel is the best technique for generating predictions of future events where there is a great uncertainty. Although specific technical assessments may exist concerning specific trends, no comprehensive assessment is available. The development of California policies to achieve compliance with the Executive Order requires the best available predictions of the context for future GHG emissions reduction strategies.


    • English


    • Status: Completed
    • Contract Numbers:



    • Sponsor Organizations:

      Research and Innovative Technology Administration

      Department of Transportation
      1200 New Jersey Avneue, SE
      Washington, DC  United States  20590

      California Department of Transportation

      1227 O Street
      Sacramento, CA  United States  95843
    • Project Managers:

      Thornton, Rusty

    • Performing Organizations:

      California State Polytechnic University, Pomona

      3801 West Temple Avenue
      Pomona, CA  United States  91768
    • Principal Investigators:

      Willson, Richard

    • Start Date: 20070601
    • Expected Completion Date: 0
    • Actual Completion Date: 20080531
    • Source Data: RiP Project 15059

    Subject/Index Terms

    Filing Info

    • Accession Number: 01460152
    • Record Type: Research project
    • Source Agency: Leonard Transportation Center
    • Contract Numbers: 2007-SGP-1010, GT-70767
    • Files: UTC, RiP, USDOT, STATEDOT
    • Created Date: Jan 3 2013 1:19PM