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https://www.nationalacademies.org/trb/events

Implementation of Riley’s Qualitative Safety Evaluation Method for Pilot Impairment Risk

This project will develop and demonstrate a standardized qualitative method for evaluating how medical conditions may affect pilot performance and aviation safety. The research addresses partial impairment, in which physiological or cognitive effects may degrade a pilot’s ability to perform specific operational tasks without causing total incapacitation. Using the landing phase of airline operations as a bounded case study, researchers will work with airline transport pilots, aeromedical specialists, neuropsychologists, human-factors experts, and safety-management professionals. The team will identify critical cognitive and performance requirements, map potential impairment mechanisms to vulnerable tasks, and apply Riley’s qualitative safety evaluation method to construct explicit safety claims supported by structured arguments, evidence, assumptions, uncertainties, and confidence considerations. The project will produce a fully documented example evaluation, task and impairment mapping, reusable templates, evidence checklists, and implementation guidance. These products are intended to help the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Office of Aerospace Medicine evaluate medical risks more consistently, transparently, and defensibly while supporting modernization of aeromedical policy and oversight. Following completion in fiscal year 2027, the FAA plans to incorporate the method into guidance, workforce training, and additional pilot medical-risk evaluations to assess its scalability and practical value.