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https://www.nationalacademies.org/trb/events

Tipping-Point Analysis of Air Traffic Controller Impairment in Terminal Airspace Operations

This project will develop and validate a computational model for assessing how cognitive impairment among air traffic controllers may affect the safety and efficiency of terminal airspace operations. Current Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) oversight relies largely on procedural safeguards and retrospective monitoring and cannot quantitatively predict how fatigue, illness, medication effects, or other impairments influence controller performance or aircraft separation. The research will first construct a representative model of air traffic controller tasks using operational procedures, realistic traffic scenarios, simulation, and subject-matter expert input. After confirming that the model accurately represents unimpaired controller performance, researchers will introduce impairment-related changes in cognitive performance and evaluate their effects on loss-of-separation risk, conflict-resolution time, delay, and throughput. The analysis will examine whether safety margins decline gradually or exhibit “tipping points” at which relatively small additional impairments produce disproportionate operational effects. The resulting model will provide the FAA with a reusable predictive capability to support safety risk assessments, fatigue risk management, staffing evaluations, and medical oversight policy. It may also be adapted to evaluate other human-performance factors, including training, aging, procedural changes, and new technologies. Findings will help determine whether current safeguards remain adequate or whether performance-based policy changes should be considered.