Ensemble Radar Nowcasts for Probabilistic Road Disruption Prediction

Heavy precipitation and flash flooding can rapidly degrade roadway operating conditions, causing speed reductions, lane closures, detours, and secondary crashes. Current traffic management systems largely confirm disruptions after they have already developed, limiting the ability of transportation operators to act proactively. Deterministic weather products also provide limited information about forecast uncertainty, which is critical for risk-based operational decision-making. This project develops a probabilistic road disruption nowcasting system that integrates ensemble radar precipitation forecasts with traffic observations and roadway attributes to produce segment-level disruption probabilities at lead times of 30 to 180 minutes. Using a multi-member ensemble framework applied to real-time radar precipitation data, the system will generate exceedance probabilities and persistence metrics that quantify near-term hazard likelihood. These probabilistic precipitation indicators will be fused with traffic state variables and roadway characteristics to estimate the likelihood of operational disruption. The result is a calibrated, segment-level decision-support tool that provides actionable lead time and quantified uncertainty to support safer and more reliable corridor operations.

Language

• English

Project

• Status: Active
• Funding: $147,824.00
• Contract Numbers:

  69A3552348307

• Sponsor Organizations:

  Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

  University Transportation Centers Program
  Department of Transportation
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Managing Organizations:

  Mid-America Transportation Center

  University of Nebraska-Lincoln
  2200 Vine Street, PO Box 830851
  Lincoln, NE  United States  68583-0851
• Project Managers:

  Bruner, Britain

• Performing Organizations:

  University of Iowa, Iowa City

  National Advanced Driving Simulator, 2401 Oakdale Blvd
  Iowa City, IA  United States  52242-5003
• Principal Investigators:

  Derin, Yagmur

• Start Date: 20260601
• Expected Completion Date: 20270531
• Actual Completion Date: 0
• USDOT Program: University Transportation Centers Program

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Decision support systems; Floods; Precipitation; Probability; Road weather information systems; Traffic control; Traffic forecasting; Traffic models; Weather forecasting
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Environment; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01989956
• Record Type: Research project
• Source Agency: Mid-America Transportation Center
• Contract Numbers: 69A3552348307
• Files: UTC, RIP
• Created Date: May 23 2026 6:00PM