Transit-Oriented Development Ridership Calculator - Phase 1

Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) is the creation of compact, walkable, pedestrian-oriented, mixed-use communities centered around stations along transit priority corridors (rail, bus rapid transit). The State of California has established several policies to support TOD, as have local jurisdictions and the Federal Transit Administration (FTA). There is a need for research on the quantifiable impacts of TOD on transit ridership to guide policy and investments in TOD for future transit plans. There is good literature on the impacts of various factors (fares, gas prices, service levels, TNCs, etc.) on ridership levels. There is also literature on the impact of land use generally (employment/population density, land use types) on transit ridership. TOD impacts on ridership, however, are not well researched to date because data on TODs and the residents that move into them is not available at a consistent level. Agencies and municipalities applying for state grants provide estimates of ridership impacts and new development catalyzed by the project, but producing well-supported, reliable numbers in their applications remains a challenge. Some regions have regional ridership models they use in service planning, but these models are generally not designed to forecast changes associated with a single building or neighborhood. Other regions do not have ridership models at all and must rely on ad-hoc approaches to estimate ridership impacts. There is also a need to provide consistent, transparent transit ridership estimates so that more-resourced agencies applying for grants do not out-compete less-resourced agencies that don't have their own regional ridership models. Different local or regional transit ridership model methodologies may not be transparent to audiences, including grant application evaluators. One way to standardize the process and level the playing field between agencies is through the creation of an easy-to-use calculator for estimating the ridership impacts of TOD projects. Through this tool, ridership estimates for applicants seeking funding or zoning variances for TOD projects will be able to document how the projects will impact ridership. These estimates will be comparable across projects thanks to using a standardized methodology. This project will lay the groundwork for creating such a calculator, by reviewing the existing literature on the topic and identifying an actionable plan and concrete model structure to implement the calculator.

• Record URL:
  • https://ncst.ucdavis.edu/project/transit-oriented-development-ridership-calculator-phase-1

Language

• English

Project

• Status: Active
• Funding: $80,000.00
• Contract Numbers:

  DOT 69A3552348319

  DOT 69A3552344814

  Caltrans 65A1250

• Sponsor Organizations:

  Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

  University Transportation Centers Program
  Department of Transportation
  Washington, DC  United States  20590

  National Center for Sustainable Transportation

  University of California, Davis
  Davis, CA  United States 

  California Department of Transportation

  1227 O Street
  Sacramento, CA  United States  95843
• Managing Organizations:

  National Center for Sustainable Transportation

  University of California, Davis
  Davis, CA  United States 

  University of California, Davis

  1 Shields Ave
  Davis, California  United States  95616
• Project Managers:

  Cliff, Sydney

• Performing Organizations:

  National Center for Sustainable Transportation

  University of California, Davis
  Davis, CA  United States 

  University of California, Davis

  1 Shields Ave
  Davis, California  United States  95616

  University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

  UNC-CH New East Building
  Campus Box #3140
  Chapel Hill, North Carolina  United States  27599-3140
• Principal Investigators:

  Pike, Susan

  Bhagat-Conway, Matthew

  Watkins, Kari

• Start Date: 20250601
• Expected Completion Date: 20260731
• Actual Completion Date: 0
• USDOT Program: University Transportation Centers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Calculators; Estimating; Ridership; Transit oriented development
• Subject Areas: Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01988517
• Record Type: Research project
• Source Agency: National Center for Sustainable Transportation
• Contract Numbers: DOT 69A3552348319, DOT 69A3552344814, Caltrans 65A1250
• Files: UTC, RIP
• Created Date: Apr 30 2026 12:20PM