Scaling Shared Autonomous Vehicle Services: Adoption, Demand, and System Implications
Autonomous vehicle (AV) operations are expanding across major U.S. cities, prompting public agencies and industry stakeholders to consider how shared AV services should be deployed, scaled, and integrated into existing transportation systems. Shared AVs have the potential to serve a wide range of travelers, including individuals who currently drive but may choose to use AVs occasionally, those seeking alternative travel options that allow more productive use of travel time, and travelers who may not consistently rely on a private vehicle for day-to-day transportation. Despite growing deployment, empirical evidence remains limited on how shared AV services will be adopted across regions, travel needs, and service contexts, and how their expansion can be guided to align with observed demand and system performance goals. Most prior AV studies were conducted before widespread deployment and relied on respondents with little to no direct exposure to AV services. As AV operations expand, more individuals are encountering these vehicles firsthand as passengers, road users, or through broader media exposure, creating a timely opportunity to reassess their implications for travel behavior and system-level outcomes. This transition from limited testing to sustained operations highlights the need for updated evidence that reflects current deployment conditions and real-world exposure. This study will generate policy-relevant evidence to support informed shared AV deployment by examining adoption expectations, anticipated use by trip purpose, and geographic variation across urban, suburban, and rural areas. Using data from the UC Davis Mobility Panel Survey and a targeted convenience sample from regions with active AV operations, researchers will analyze anticipated shared AV use for commuting, shopping, escorting, and healthcare travel. The project will also assess how service attributes such as pricing, wait times, and availability influence adoption and demand across various geographic contexts. By identifying where shared AV services are most likely to complement existing transportation services, the study will provide actionable guidance on deployment strategies, service design, and policy considerations, supporting policymakers and industry stakeholders in evaluating scaling pathways and system impacts as services expand.
Language
- English
Project
- Status: Active
- Funding: $209,999.00
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Contract Numbers:
DOT 69A3552348319
DOT 69A3552344814
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Sponsor Organizations:
Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology
University Transportation Centers Program
Department of Transportation
Washington, DC United States 20590National Center for Sustainable Transportation
University of California, Davis
Davis, CA United StatesUniversity of California, Davis
1 Shields Ave
Davis, California United States 95616 -
Managing Organizations:
National Center for Sustainable Transportation
University of California, Davis
Davis, CA United StatesUniversity of California, Davis
1 Shields Ave
Davis, California United States 95616 -
Project Managers:
Cliff, Sydney
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Performing Organizations:
National Center for Sustainable Transportation
University of California, Davis
Davis, CA United StatesUniversity of California, Davis
1 Shields Ave
Davis, California United States 95616 -
Principal Investigators:
Ozbilen, Basar
Nordhoff, Sina
Lee, Yongsung
- Start Date: 20260401
- Expected Completion Date: 20270331
- Actual Completion Date: 0
- USDOT Program: University Transportation Centers
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Autonomous vehicles; Implementation; Shared mobility; Travel demand
- Subject Areas: Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01985460
- Record Type: Research project
- Source Agency: National Center for Sustainable Transportation
- Contract Numbers: DOT 69A3552348319, DOT 69A3552344814
- Files: UTC, RIP
- Created Date: Apr 12 2026 11:06PM