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https://www.nationalacademies.org/trb/events

Utility of Improving Nonmotorized Volume Forecasts for Bike Infrastructure

Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) lacks clarity on several foundational questions for bicycle and pedestrian demand forecasting: (1) the accuracy of the current forecasting method(s), (2) the full range of decisions that would benefit from more precise demand estimates, (3) the availability and reliability of existing bicycle and pedestrian count data, and (4) whether a more advanced forecasting method could be effectively adapted for Virginia. Given these four unknowns and the anticipated large expense of a Virginia-specific model, it is unclear whether VDOT should spend substantial time and resources creating a better approach for estimating nonmotorized demand. Through a literature review, survey and potentially follow-up interviews, assessment of alternative methods, evaluation of existing count data, and data analysis to evaluate the utility of improving forecasts, this research will determine if VDOT should develop a better method or continue the current approach.