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https://www.nationalacademies.org/trb/events

STPA-Based Risk Assessment for Mental Health–Related Aviation Performance Hazards

This project develops and demonstrates a systems-theoretic approach for assessing aviation safety risks associated with mental health–related performance degradation among pilots and air traffic controllers. Current aviation safety frameworks recognize that many human performance hazards—particularly those associated with mental health—cannot be reliably quantified using traditional probabilistic risk methods, creating a gap in Safety Management System (SMS) risk assessment and oversight. The research applies System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) to model aeromedical mental health oversight as a sociotechnical control structure involving the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Office of Aerospace Medicine, airline operators, labor organizations, peer-support programs, and healthcare interfaces. Through structured analysis and stakeholder engagement, the project will identify hazards, unsafe control actions, and systemic contributors that may degrade the effectiveness of existing oversight mechanisms. The research will then develop a modernized control structure aligned with SMS principles, including improved regulator–industry interfaces, qualitative risk evaluation methods for non-probabilistic hazards, and leading indicators to monitor oversight system health. The resulting framework is intended to support more consistent, transparent, and defensible evaluation of mental health–related aviation performance hazards while enabling proactive safety assurance within the broader aviation oversight architecture.