Assessing Transportation Infrastructure Exposure to Flooding Using Next-Generation Flood Maps in Eastern Oklahoma

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps are widely used as a primary reference for the planning, design, and risk assessment of transportation infrastructure, particularly for evaluating flood exposure to roads, bridges, and overall network performance during extreme weather events. While FEMA maps are routinely used by stakeholders, they have come under increasing scrutiny due to a key limitation: FEMA’s 100-year flood maps assume that the “100-year flood” is produced by a single design storm, commonly referred to as the “100-year storm.” As a result, these maps are deterministic, indicating only whether an area is flooded or not under the 100-year storm event. This approach fails to represent the full range of meteorological and hydrologic variability. To address this limitation, FEMA, in collaboration with U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), launched the Future of Flood Risk Data Initiative (FFRDI) project. This initiative represents a paradigm shift: moving from deterministic to probabilistic flood hazard maps. Yet, there remains a critical question: how will these next-generation probabilistic flood maps impact transportation infrastructure risk analyses compared to the traditional, deterministic FEMA products? Addressing this question is urgent. Understanding how the new probabilistic maps alter flood exposure assessments is essential for transportation agencies to update resilience strategies, design standards, and emergency management plans. Without proactive evaluation, agencies risk facing misalignments between outdated flood data assumptions and modern hazard realities. This project aims to lead the first assessment of transportation infrastructure flood hazard exposure using probabilistic flood maps by using the FEMA’s FFRDI framework. The study will focus on the Illinois River watershed in eastern Oklahoma, covering approximately 800 km² from the urban center of Tahlequah to the Arkansas state line. This area includes critical transportation corridors such as State Highways 10 and 82, U.S. Highway 59 and 412. The domain was strategically selected based on the availability of pre-calibrated and validated hydrologic and hydraulic models provided by the USACE Tulsa District, ensuring realistic implementation within the project timeline. Using the Illinois River Basin in eastern Oklahoma as a case study, this project has three primary objectives: (1) generate high-resolution probabilistic flood hazard maps following the FFRDI methodology; (2) assess transportation infrastructure flood exposure by intersecting these maps with road and bridge datasets; and (3) quantify differences between traditional and probabilistic flood maps, with a focus on transportation-related impacts. The project will be carried out through five main tasks: Task 1 involves generating synthetic storm events using stochastic storm transposition methods. Task 2 includes hydrologic and hydraulic simulations using HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS models. Task 3 focuses on developing probabilistic flood maps. Task 4 evaluates infrastructure exposure under both traditional and probabilistic mapping approaches. Task 5 tracks progress across all tasks and compiles key deliverables through mid-year and final reporting. Expected outcomes include a publicly available dataset of probabilistic flood hazard maps and a catalog of flood-exposed transportation assets within the study area. Ultimately, this work will demonstrate the added value of probabilistic flood products for improving hazard characterization and will offer practical guidance for DOTs and planners seeking to integrate next-generation flood data into transportation resilience planning.

• Record URL:
  • https://www.sptc.org/cy3-osu-05

Language

• English

Project

• Status: Active
• Funding: $70,000.00
• Contract Numbers:

  69A3552348306 (CY3-OSU-05)

• Sponsor Organizations:

  Southern Plains Transportation Center

  University of Oklahoma
  202 W Boyd St, Room 213A
  Norman, OK  United States  73019

  Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

  University Transportation Centers Program
  Department of Transportation
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Managing Organizations:

  University of Oklahoma, Norman

  School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science
  202 West Boyd Street, Room 334
  Norman, OK  United States  73019
• Project Managers:

  Ghasemi, Hamid

• Performing Organizations:

  Oklahoma State University, Stillwater

  School of Civil & Environmental Engineering
  Stillwater, OK  United States  74078
• Principal Investigators:

  Perez, Gabriel

• Start Date: 20260101
• Expected Completion Date: 20270101
• Actual Completion Date: 0
• USDOT Program: UTC

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Case studies; Data analysis; Flood routing; Floods; Maps; Probability; Risk assessment
• Identifier Terms: U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency
• Geographic Terms: Oklahoma
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Hydraulics and Hydrology; Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General);

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01975689
• Record Type: Research project
• Source Agency: Southern Plains Transportation Center
• Contract Numbers: 69A3552348306 (CY3-OSU-05)
• Files: UTC, RIP
• Created Date: Jan 5 2026 11:01PM