Calibration and Implementation of Highway Safety Manual Bicyclist and Pedestrian Intersection Crash Prediction Models

The forthcoming 2nd Edition of the AASHTO Highway Safety Manual (HSM2) will introduce dedicated crash prediction models (CPMs) for pedestrian and bicyclist crashes at intersections, midblock crossings, and roadway segments. The goal of this research is to calibrate the HSM2 pedestrian and bicyclist intersection CPMs using Virginia-specific data. The research outcomes will enhance the accuracy of nonmotorized crash predictions and support Virginia Department of Transportation's (VDOT’s) broader goals of data-driven planning, design decision-making, and funding prioritization for safety improvements. To achieve this goal, the research will (1) assemble a comprehensive dataset for selected representative intersections in Virginia, including crash history, exposure data, and roadway and roadside design features required by the HSM2 CPMs, (2) develop appropriate methods for estimating pedestrian and bicyclist exposure at intersections, considering available data sources, (3) develop a robust calibration methodology that accounts for the variability of contextual settings, exposure ranges, facility types and jurisdictions, etc., and (4) design a practical tool and accompanying guidance to help VDOT implement and maintain the calibrated pedestrian and bicyclist CPMs.

Language

• English

Project

• Status: Active
• Funding: $250,000.00
• Contract Numbers:

  128593

• Sponsor Organizations:

  Virginia Transportation Research Council

  530 Edgemont Road
  Charlottesville, VA  United States  22903
• Managing Organizations:

  Virginia Transportation Research Council

  530 Edgemont Road
  Charlottesville, VA  United States  22903
• Project Managers:

  Fontaine, Michael

• Performing Organizations:

  Old Dominion University

  Norfolk, VA  United States  23529
• Principal Investigators:

  Xie, K

  Yang, H

  Cetin, Mecit

• Start Date: 20260201
• Expected Completion Date: 20280531
• Actual Completion Date: 0

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Bicycle crashes; Calibration; Crash data; Crash risk forecasting; Intersections; Pedestrian vehicle crashes
• Identifier Terms: Highway Safety Manual
• Geographic Terms: Virginia
• Subject Areas: Highways; Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01973363
• Record Type: Research project
• Source Agency: Virginia Department of Transportation
• Contract Numbers: 128593
• Files: RIP, STATEDOT
• Created Date: Dec 4 2025 8:52AM