Probabilistic rock mass quality prediction model and its application to tunneling design (UTI-UTC 31)

This project develops a probabilistic framework for predicting rock mass quality and integrating uncertainty into tunneling design. By applying statistical methods to geotechnical investigation data—such as rock quality designation (RQD), uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), and joint spacing—the model estimates spatial variability and classifies ground conditions using the Q-system. Monte Carlo simulations are employed to generate rock mass quality distributions along tunnel alignments, which in turn inform support system selection and tunnel stability assessments. The research also includes sensitivity analyses to determine the influence of each geotechnical parameter on tunnel design decisions. The probabilistic approach enhances current deterministic design practices by quantifying risks, improving adaptability in challenging geological settings, and supporting more robust engineering decisions for underground infrastructure projects.

Language

• English

Project

• Status: Completed
• Funding: $169,138.00
• Contract Numbers:

  69A3551747118

• Sponsor Organizations:

  University Transportation Center for Underground Transportation Infrastructure

  Colorado School of Mines
  Golden, CO  United States  80401

  Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

  University Transportation Centers Program
  Department of Transportation
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Managing Organizations:

  Colorado School of Mines

  1500 Illinois St
  Golden, CO  United States  80401
• Performing Organizations:

  Colorado School of Mines

  1500 Illinois St
  Golden, CO  United States  80401
• Principal Investigators:

  Gutierrez , Marte

• Start Date: 20170101
• Expected Completion Date: 20200430
• Actual Completion Date: 20200501
• USDOT Program: University Transportation Centers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Monte Carlo method; Predictive models; Rock excavation; Simulation; Structural design; Tunnels
• Subject Areas: Bridges and other structures; Design; Geotechnology; Highways;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01954479
• Record Type: Research project
• Source Agency: University Transportation Center for Underground Transportation Infrastructure
• Contract Numbers: 69A3551747118
• Files: UTC, RIP
• Created Date: May 7 2025 5:19PM