1. Home
  2. RIP
  3. View Record
https://www.nationalacademies.org/trb/events

Layered Model for Disease Transmission Safety Risk Analysis

The Office of Aerospace Medicine needs to quantitatively model disease transmission risk in commercial air travel and assess mitigations to inform public health preparedness. Preliminary work under another project developed two risk modeling approaches for an inter-agency Safety Risk Management (SRM) team convening in Q3FY25. One approach, advanced through Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) research, built on work by the Munich University of Applied Sciences combing microscopic crowd simulation with airborne pathogen transmission in the Vadere platform. Further work is required to refine the model beyond SRM needs and prepare it for broader use by the end of FY25. Tasks include finalizing parameters, model validation, improving computational efficiency and user experience, and documenting the model. This research supports the FAA’s Aviation Safety Research Strategy Public Health thrust and depends on concurrent data from National Research Council Canada, Boeing (for comparison with their TRIP-X model), and NIOSH for validation.