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https://www.nationalacademies.org/trb/events

Safety Risk Management Model for Pilot Medical Hazard Non-Disclosure

The Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA’s) Office of Aerospace Medicine requires a quantitative risk model for use in a Safety Risk Management (SRM) Panel to assess the risk of undisclosed pilot medical conditions. The AAM Safety Council identified the need for just in time research to develop a quantitative, probabilistic risk assessment model that will yield likelihood and severity estimates that can be assessed in terms of FAA risk thresholds as defined in FAA Order 8040.4C. This risk model needs to address uncertainty about hazard (medical condition) prevalence in the pilot population, rates of pilot non-disclosure and subsequent healthcare avoidance, and the mitigating effect of preventive (medical standards, preflight self-assessments, and medical treatment) and recovery (dual pilot operations and auto recovery systems) controls on the occurrence of pilot total or partial incapacitation and/or its propagation to loss of aircraft control resulting in an accident. It is anticipated that this type of model will also be needed to address the SRM recommendation made by the Mental Health and Aviation Medical Clearances Aviation Rulemaking Committee (ARC) in April 2024.