Investigation of the Abilities and Limitations of Travel Demand Modeling in Informing Decision-Making

California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) and other agencies rely on travel demand models (TDMs) to forecast outcomes of changes in the transportation system, such as highway expansions and long-range transportation plans. However, these TDMs are imperfect. They are not capable of analyzing certain kinds of projects (for example, bicycle and pedestrian facilities). In addition, agencies are increasingly interested in project outcomes like vehicle miles traveled (VMT), greenhouse gas emissions, safety, noise, and equity. TDMs are unable to provide forecasts for many of these outcomes. TDM forecasts may be inaccurate, notably for VMT effects of induced travel. The model may also be inaccurate due to inherent bias in its calibration or because of input and parameter decisions by agency staff. This project will investigate these issues by first delineating the capabilities of TDMs to accurately forecast different kinds of outcomes for different types of projects. This will lead to recommendations on where the use of TDMs is appropriate and where alternative tools may be used/developed. This project will also assess the usefulness of TDMs in regulatory settings by determining how susceptible TDM analyses are to bias introduced by the model operator. These findings will inform policymakers of the opportunities and limitations in relying on TDMs as regulatory tools.

Language

  • English

Project

  • Status: Active
  • Funding: $216653
  • Contract Numbers:

    DOT 69A3552348319

    DOT 69A3552344814

    Caltrans 65A1035

  • Sponsor Organizations:

    Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

    University Transportation Centers Program
    Department of Transportation
    Washington, DC  United States  20590

    National Center for Sustainable Transportation

    University of California, Davis
    Davis, CA  United States 

    California Department of Transportation

    1227 O Street
    Sacramento, CA  United States  95843
  • Managing Organizations:

    National Center for Sustainable Transportation

    University of California, Davis
    Davis, CA  United States 

    University of California, Davis

    1 Shields Ave
    Davis, California  United States  95616
  • Project Managers:

    Cliff, Sydney

  • Performing Organizations:

    National Center for Sustainable Transportation

    University of California, Davis
    Davis, CA  United States 

    University of California, Davis

    1 Shields Ave
    Davis, California  United States  95616
  • Principal Investigators:

    Handy, Susan

    Rodier, Caroline

  • Start Date: 20230630
  • Expected Completion Date: 20240930
  • Actual Completion Date: 0
  • USDOT Program: University Transportation Centers

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01935552
  • Record Type: Research project
  • Source Agency: National Center for Sustainable Transportation
  • Contract Numbers: DOT 69A3552348319, DOT 69A3552344814, Caltrans 65A1035
  • Files: UTC, RIP
  • Created Date: Oct 30 2024 5:13PM