Understanding and Communicating Reliability of Crash Prediction Models
The objectives of this research were to develop guidelines for: (1) the quantification of the reliability of crash prediction models including crash modification factors and/or functions (CMFs) and safety performance functions (SPFs) for practitioner use; (2) user interpretation of model reliability; and (3) the application of crash prediction models accounting for, but not limited to assumptions, data ranges, and intended and unintended uses. The guidelines were to address the following, at a minimum: methods to improve the reliability of crash prediction models; implications of assumptions; crash Prediction Model validation; data quality; use and reliability of calibrations; combining CMFs; enhanced accuracy and reliability as a result of increased model complexity; implications of crash prediction model limitations on safety programs and policy; and effective communication of crash prediction model outputs to a variety of audiences. The guidelines were to include a number of case studies or illustrative examples that demonstrate the quantification and user interpretation of crash prediction models reliability. Examples may illustrate the application of crash prediction models accounting for, but not limited to assumptions, data ranges, and intended and unintended uses. The guidelines were intended to assist practitioners and researchers in addressing the application and understanding and communicating the model outcomes. The research results may be incorporated in a future edition of the AASHTO HSM.
Language
- English
Project
- Status: Completed
- Funding: $300000
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Contract Numbers:
Project 17-78
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Sponsor Organizations:
National Cooperative Highway Research Program
Transportation Research Board
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC United States 20001American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO)
444 North Capitol Street, NW
Washington, DC United States 20001Federal Highway Administration
1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
Washington, DC United States 20590 -
Performing Organizations:
University of North Carolina - Chapel Hill
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Principal Investigators:
Srinivasan, Raghavan
- Start Date: 20161201
- Expected Completion Date: 20200831
- Actual Completion Date: 20200831
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Crash modification factors; Crash risk forecasting; Predictive models; Reliability
- Identifier Terms: Safety Performance Functions
- Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01935389
- Record Type: Research project
- Source Agency: Transportation Research Board
- Contract Numbers: Project 17-78
- Files: TRB, RIP
- Created Date: Oct 28 2024 5:57PM