Assessing the Impacts of Evolving Rockfall Hazard Due to Climate Change on Colorado's Transportation Network

Geohazards present a substantial risk to Colorado’s transportation network. Hazard events regularly lead to maintenance and hazard management costs incurred directly by Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT), as well as indirect user costs due to mobility impacts. In extreme cases, geohazards can cause extended closures of key routes through the mountains (e.g. I-70) can occur where users experience lengthy detours and commerce can be greatly impacted in small mountain communities. The occurrence of geohazard events is strongly tied to weather patterns, including freeze-thaw occurrence, snow accumulation and melt volumes, and liquid precipitation volumes. Several recent studies led by the Colorado School of Mines have helped to establish some of the relationships between weather variables and rockfall occurrence (e.g. Weidner & Walton, 2021; Malsam, 2022; Walton et al., 2023). While significant short-term variability can influence the overall severity of geohazards in any given year, over the long term, the overall hazard and risk profile of Colorado’s transportation network could be dependent on long-term climate trends and their influence on hazard potential. CDOT has recently made great efforts to develop and implement asset management practices in the context of assets associated with geohazards (e.g. cut slopes and constructed embankments). One challenge in the implementation of such practices for effective long-term asset management is the development of reliable deterioration models to forecast future asset condition, or in the context of assets associated with geohazards, future hazard evolution for the asset. Aside from asset deterioration mechanisms that can be studied through retrospective analysis (e.g. rock slope weathering over time), the changing Colorado climate has the potential to further modify the nature of deterioration of these assets, complicating forecasting efforts. Deterioration models that can accommodate changes in forecasted climate conditions will allow CDOT to better understand how geotechnical assets will perform over time and adjust investment strategies to manage those assets accordingly. For the purposes of this study, the focus is therefore on the evaluation of potential changes in rockfall hazard across Colorado’s transportation network as a function of climate change through the remainder of the 21st century.

Language

• English

Project

• Status: Programmed
• Sponsor Organizations:

  Colorado Department of Transportation

  Applied Research and Innovation Branch
  Denver, CO  United States  80204
• Managing Organizations:

  Colorado Department of Transportation

  Applied Research and Innovation Branch
  Denver, CO  United States  80204
• Project Managers:

  Tran, Thien

• Performing Organizations:

  Colorado School of Mines, Golden

  1500 Illinois Street
  Golden, CO  United States  80401
• Principal Investigators:

  Walton, Gabriel

• Start Date: 20250501
• Expected Completion Date: 0
• Actual Completion Date: 0

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Asset management; Climate change; Deterioration; Risk assessment; Rockfalls
• Geographic Terms: Colorado
• Subject Areas: Environment; Geotechnology; Highways; Planning and Forecasting;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01930631
• Record Type: Research project
• Source Agency: Colorado Department of Transportation
• Files: RIP, STATEDOT
• Created Date: Sep 16 2024 9:04AM