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https://www.nationalacademies.org/trb/events

Present and future hazard scenario database for coastal infrastructural resilience and maintenance planning

This project seeks to characterize present and future flooding impacts for coastal communities by using a database of historical and synthetic storms to force a suite of hydrodynamic and wave models for a coastal community. Projections of wave, surge, and flooding will be particularly focused on areas near critical infrastructure components (e.g., roads critical for evacuation and recovery; bridge piers, etc.). Synthetic storms have many of the same trends as the historical storms but have random starting and ending locations along established tracks, along with a distribution of hurricane parameters along these tracks. Wind fields from the hurricanes can be calculated from the parameters, and since the parameters have a probability of occurrence associated with them, surge probability and susceptibility can be determined. In addition, upland discharge values will be added to represent flooding from rainfall and riverine sources. The overall product will be a set of maps delineating flooding risk and susceptibility. For selected infrastructural components of particular concern, a phase-resolved wave model, driven by flooding and wave events from hurricanes, can be used to simulate the time-dependent forces from hurricane-driven waves and help pinpoint potentially damaging conditions within hurricane events. Finally, the results will be used to evaluate the impact of flooding on evacuation and traffic flow.