Risk-Informed Stochastic Programming with Applications to Inland Flash Flooding of Roadway Freight Networks

From a practical perspective, annual United States freight volume is expected to grow by at least 50% in the next 25 years (US Bureau of Statistics) [1], putting even more pressure on the already-strained road network system. Ensuring supply chain resilience through freight mobility in the face of disruptions is critical for national security and the economy (White House Report 14017, 2021) [2]. The proposed research will give stakeholders a tool to identify strategic investment opportunities for enhancing roadway resilience against the effects of climate change. The proposed research will fill two main gaps in the literature. First, transportation resilience research has nearly exclusively focused on the impact that climate change will have on coastal regions through sea level rise. The proposed research will explicitly focus on the inland impact namely from flooding caused by more frequent high- intensity storms through both a short- and long-term lens, pioneering a new focus for preparation against climate change. Second, current decision-making frameworks struggle in the presence of low-probability, high-impact events (such as flash flooding), either by ignoring these events and suffering the full brunt of their impact or by overemphasizing them and wasting resources. The proposed research exploits the benefits of each approach by biasing the scenario generation toward extreme events, providing a more complete understanding of system vulnerabilities and opportunities for strategic investment without increasing model size too much. The approach can be applied to any long-tail distribution and can account for stakeholder risk postures.

• Record URL:
  https://fersc.utk.edu/research-focus/fersc-projects-year-2/

Language

• English

Project

• Status: Active
• Funding: $225000
• Contract Numbers:

  69-A3552348338

• Sponsor Organizations:

  Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

  University Transportation Centers Program
  Department of Transportation
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Managing Organizations:

  Center for Freight Transportation for Efficient and Resilient Supply Chain

  University of Tennessee Knoxville
  Knoxville, TN  United States  37996
• Project Managers:

  Bruner, Britain

  Kaplan, Marcella

• Performing Organizations:

  University of Tennessee, Knoxville

  Knoxville, TN  United States 
• Principal Investigators:

  Jin, Mingzhou

• Start Date: 20240701
• Expected Completion Date: 20250630
• Actual Completion Date: 0
• USDOT Program: University Transportation Centers Program

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Climate change adaptation; Floods; Freight transportation; Risk assessment; Stochastic programming
• Subject Areas: Environment; Freight Transportation; Operations and Traffic Management; Terminals and Facilities;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01929235
• Record Type: Research project
• Source Agency: Center for Freight Transportation for Efficient and Resilient Supply Chain
• Contract Numbers: 69-A3552348338
• Files: UTC, RIP
• Created Date: Aug 29 2024 4:24PM