Crash Prediction Methods for Long-Term Work Zones

The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Highway Safety Manual (HSM) has crash prediction methods for multilane roadway facilities, but only a few of the available methods address the safety performance of these facilities with long-duration work zones (defined as work zones with temporary traffic control [TTC] devices that remain in place for extended time periods [i.e., multiple weeks or months]) in place. As a result, state departments of transportation (DOTs) and other highway agencies rely on judgment and experience rather than quantitative safety analysis in developing TTC plans for long-duration work zones. Research is needed to better understand the quantitative safety performance, including crash frequency and crash severity measures, of a variety of work zone TTC characteristics. These characteristics include speed limit, lane closures, lane shifts, shoulder closures, median crossovers, lane width, shoulder width, horizontal curvature, offsets from the traveled way to traffic barriers, breakdown bay (i.e., emergency pull-off area), and construction access points. New knowledge on these topics should be assembled into quantitative crash prediction methods that can be used by state DOTs and other highway agencies in developing TTC plans.  OBJECTIVE: The objective of this project is to develop crash prediction methods and supporting spreadsheet tools for state DOTs and other highway agencies to plan and design TTC for long-duration work zones on high-speed (45 mph or higher) multilane roadway facilities.  The crash prediction methods should be capable of comparing the expected safety performance of different work zone design options to assist in planning work zone configurations and project phasing. These crash prediction methods should have a similar structure to existing HSM crash prediction methods, with safety performance functions and crash modification factors. The research may adapt these approaches as needed to provide an effective procedure and structure for the models to provide crash frequency and severity estimates. These crash prediction methods should be suitable for incorporation in future editions of the AASHTO HSM. 

• Record URL:
  • http://apps.trb.org/cmsfeed/TRBNetProjectDisplay.asp?ProjectID=5685
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Contract to a Performing Organization has not yet been awarded.

Language

• English

Project

• Funding: $700000
• Contract Numbers:

  Project 17-137

• Sponsor Organizations:

  National Cooperative Highway Research Program

  Transportation Research Board
  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001

  American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO)

  444 North Capitol Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001

  Federal Highway Administration

  1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Project Managers:

  Deng, Zuxuan

• Start Date: 20241216
• Expected Completion Date: 0
• Actual Completion Date: 0

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Crash risk forecasting; Geometric design; Work zone traffic control; Work zones
• Identifier Terms: Highway Safety Manual
• Subject Areas: Construction; Design; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01919280
• Record Type: Research project
• Source Agency: Transportation Research Board
• Contract Numbers: Project 17-137
• Files: TRB, RIP
• Created Date: May 21 2024 8:29PM