The Induced Demand Implications of Alternative Adoption Modalities of Automated Vehicles

There is considerable concern about the induced demand implications of the advent of automated vehicles. In an automated vehicle future, drivers and passengers are relieved of the driving task, thus rendering car travel more convenient and less onerous. As such, there is the possibility that people will undertake more trips in an automated vehicle future, raising the specter of induced demand. Induced demand may also arise from mode shifts, changes in trip lengths, and residential relocations. This research project recognizes that induced demand resulting from the adoption of automated vehicles is inter-related to the adoption modality. Automated vehicles may be purchased and owned personally or used as a mobility-on-demand service (or both). This project aims to shed light on the relationship between automated vehicle adoption modality and likelihood of making additional trips in an automated vehicle future. A joint model of these two outcome variables, wherein automated vehicle adoption modality affects likelihood of making additional trips, is estimated. The results show that any adoption modality increases the likelihood of making additional trips, with private ownership contributing more to induced demand than a service-based adoption modality. Efforts should be aimed at curbing private ownership of automated vehicles to prevent unintended consequences.


  • English


  • Status: Active
  • Contract Numbers:


  • Sponsor Organizations:

    Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

    University Transportation Centers Program
    Department of Transportation
    Washington, DC  United States  20590
  • Managing Organizations:

    Center for Teaching Old Models New Tricks (TOMNET)

    Arizona State University
    Tempe, AZ  United States  85287
  • Project Managers:

    Pendyala, Ram

  • Performing Organizations:

    Arizona State University, Tempe

    Tempe, AZ  United States 
  • Principal Investigators:

    Batur, Irfan

    Pendyala, Ram

  • Start Date: 20230801
  • Expected Completion Date: 0
  • Actual Completion Date: 0
  • Subprogram: University Transportation Centers

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01897361
  • Record Type: Research project
  • Source Agency: Center for Teaching Old Models New Tricks (TOMNET)
  • Contract Numbers: 69A3551747116
  • Files: UTC, RIP
  • Created Date: Oct 24 2023 2:34PM