Intersection Crash Prediction Models for Future Editions of the Highway Safety Manual

In 2010, AASHTO published the first edition of the Highway Safety Manual (HSM). HSM Part C includes methods to predict the safety performance of new facilities, assess the safety performance of existing facilities, and estimate the expected effectiveness of proposed improvements to existing facilities. To further expand the intersection types addressed in future editions of the HSM (i.e., HSM3), crash prediction models (CPMs) could be developed for additional intersection configurations and traffic control types that are not addressed in the first edition of the HSM and were not developed for HSM2 as part of NCHRP Project 17-68. The objective of this research is to develop CPMs for consideration to include in a future edition of the HSM that are consistent with existing methods in HSM Part C and comprehensive in their ability to address a range of intersection configurations and traffic control types in rural and urban areas. The new CPMs must be developed so that comparisons can be made between the safety performance of intersection types included in the HSM and the intersection types that will be addressed in this research. The research should include a pilot test activity before finalizing the models to help demonstrate the use of the models, applicability to practical use cases encountered by transportation agencies, implementation support needed, and needed refinements that can be made before the research is complete.


  • English


  • Status: Proposed
  • Funding: $750000
  • Contract Numbers:

    Project 17-26

  • Sponsor Organizations:

    National Cooperative Highway Research Program

    Transportation Research Board
    500 Fifth Street, NW
    Washington, DC  United States  20001

    American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO)

    444 North Capitol Street, NW
    Washington, DC  United States  20001

    Federal Highway Administration

    1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
    Washington, DC  United States  20590
  • Project Managers:

    Turner, Anne-Marie

  • Start Date: 20230725
  • Expected Completion Date: 0
  • Actual Completion Date: 0

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01888638
  • Record Type: Research project
  • Source Agency: Transportation Research Board
  • Contract Numbers: Project 17-26
  • Files: TRB, RIP
  • Created Date: Jul 25 2023 8:12AM