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https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/27432/critical-issues-in-transportation-for-2024-and-beyond

Communicable disease preparedness: M&S framework for analyzing cabin health hazards

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has assumed a leadership role in developing a preparedness plan for communicable disease in air travel and identifying associated research needs. The FAA’s approach to the planning effort is to use its existing Safety Risk Management (SRM) process, as documented in FAA Order 8040.4B, to determine the risk of transmission of a disease requiring flight-related contact tracing within a population of airline passengers and cabin crewmembers between the times of population formation and dispersion and the expected impacts of mitigation activities. This research project will answer the question, what is a generalizable risk analysis framework and associated set of accepted and validated modeling, simulation, and analysis (MS&A) tools for determining baseline risk and evaluating the impact of risk control measures? The project will define an analysis framework for cabin health safety hazards; conduct a survey of existing MS&A tools, data sources, and non-destructive testing methods suitable for studying pathogen movement in transport aircraft cabins; select the preferred MS&A tool set and testing methods; and plan and conduct MS&A validation and analysis studies. The resulting analysis framework and associated MS&A tools and data will be transitioned for use in communicable disease transmission preparedness planning.