System Dynamics Models of AV Impacts

A clear understanding of autonomous vehicle (AV) impacts, and how AV adoption will affect the public interest, is of great importance to federal, state and local policy-making. As the impacts of automation are far-reaching, complex and uncertain, it is critical to have a systems-level model for evaluating the potential implications of these new technologies on the transportation system. System dynamics is a quantitative method for modeling complex systems that takes into account feedback effects and changes over time. This project will build on the results of HW9EA4, HW9EA5 and HW9EA6. These projects developed, respectively, simple quantitative models of the mobility and equity aspects of new modes; a high-level system dynamics model of transportation service providers and transportation demand in an AV world, including vehicle-miles traveled under various policy scenarios; and a model of wider impacts such as changes in vehicle ownership and land use. This project will support managing uncertain futures in performance-based planning and programming, with a focus on providing methods useful to MPOs, state DOTs, and cities as appropriate. Outcomes will include (1) a review of relevant research by others, and (2) system dynamics models for exploratory scenario planning that meet the needs of these stakeholders, are sensitive to the current U.S. transportation planning process, and, to the extent possible, are open-access, easy to learn, and quick to run.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • USDOT Research Hub DisplayID 157677


  • English


  • Status: Active
  • Funding: $1000000
  • Sponsor Organizations:

    Intelligent Transportation Systems - Joint Program Office

  • Managing Organizations:

    Department of Transportation

    Intelligent Transportation Systems Joint Program Office
    1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
    Washington, DC  United States  20590
  • Project Managers:

    Dopart, Kevin

  • Start Date: 20200901
  • Expected Completion Date: 20250925
  • Actual Completion Date: 0
  • USDOT Program: Automation
  • Subprogram: Program Support

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01864209
  • Record Type: Research project
  • Source Agency: Department of Transportation
  • Files: RIP, USDOT
  • Created Date: Nov 17 2022 11:56AM