Simulating a Shift to E-delivery: Impacts on VMT (Project F6)

STRIDE project K5 is creating better estimates of shopping vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the US, using detailed travel survey data. These estimates provide a valuable baseline against which to compare estimates of the transport impacts of e-shopping and delivery services. The proposed project represents a logical extension, using the information gathered in Project K5 to provide estimates of the effect of a shift to e-shopping on travel outcomes. The project has three components. First, a regression model will be estimated using the data from Project K5 to predict the marginal VMT of a shopping trip, based on attributes of the destination and the trip maker. Second, a predicting online and in-person shopping and the tradeoffs or complementarity between them will be constructed based on COVID Future survey data. Third, the lessons learned from these models will be integrated into a regional travel demand model to improve forecasting of shopping travel, especially as e-shopping becomes more prevalent. The research team anticipates that this project will result in more thorough consideration of shopping travel and e-shopping in infrastructure planning.


    • English


    • Status: Active
    • Funding: $64595
    • Contract Numbers:


    • Sponsor Organizations:

      Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

      University Transportation Centers Program
      Department of Transportation
      Washington, DC  United States  20590
    • Managing Organizations:

      Southeastern Transportation Research, Innovation, Development and Education Center (STRIDE)

      University of Florida
      365 Weil Hall
      Gainesville, FL  United States  32611
    • Project Managers:

      Tucker-Thomas, Dawn

    • Performing Organizations:

      University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

      UNC-CH New East Building
      Campus Box #3140
      Chapel Hill, North Carolina  United States  27599-3140
    • Principal Investigators:

      Bhagat-Conway, Matthew

    • Start Date: 20220801
    • Expected Completion Date: 20230505
    • Actual Completion Date: 0
    • USDOT Program: University Transportation Centers

    Subject/Index Terms

    Filing Info

    • Accession Number: 01854175
    • Record Type: Research project
    • Source Agency: Southeastern Transportation Research, Innovation, Development and Education Center (STRIDE)
    • Contract Numbers: 69A3551747104
    • Files: UTC, RIP
    • Created Date: Aug 10 2022 1:45PM