Simulating a Shift to E-delivery: Impacts on VMT (Project F6)

STRIDE project K5 is creating better estimates of shopping vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the US, using detailed travel survey data. These estimates provide a valuable baseline against which to compare estimates of the transport impacts of e-shopping and delivery services. The proposed project represents a logical extension, using the information gathered in Project K5 to provide estimates of the effect of a shift to e-shopping on travel outcomes. The project has three components. First, a regression model will be estimated using the data from Project K5 to predict the marginal VMT of a shopping trip, based on attributes of the destination and the trip maker. Second, a predicting online and in-person shopping and the tradeoffs or complementarity between them will be constructed based on COVID Future survey data. Third, the lessons learned from these models will be integrated into a regional travel demand model to improve forecasting of shopping travel, especially as e-shopping becomes more prevalent. The research team anticipates that this project will result in more thorough consideration of shopping travel and e-shopping in infrastructure planning.

Language

• English

Project

• Status: Active
• Funding: $64595
• Contract Numbers:

  69A3551747104

• Sponsor Organizations:

  Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

  University Transportation Centers Program
  Department of Transportation
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Managing Organizations:

  Southeastern Transportation Research, Innovation, Development and Education Center (STRIDE)

  University of Florida
  365 Weil Hall
  Gainesville, FL  United States  32611
• Project Managers:

  Tucker-Thomas, Dawn

• Performing Organizations:

  University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

  UNC-CH New East Building
  Campus Box #3140
  Chapel Hill, North Carolina  United States  27599-3140
• Principal Investigators:

  Bhagat-Conway, Matthew

• Start Date: 20220801
• Expected Completion Date: 20230505
• Actual Completion Date: 0
• USDOT Program: University Transportation Centers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: COVID-19; Delivery service; Electronic commerce; Forecasting; Shopping trips; Travel demand; Vehicle miles of travel
• Subject Areas: Freight Transportation; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Society;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01854175
• Record Type: Research project
• Source Agency: Southeastern Transportation Research, Innovation, Development and Education Center (STRIDE)
• Contract Numbers: 69A3551747104
• Files: UTC, RIP
• Created Date: Aug 10 2022 1:45PM