SPR-2320: Impacts of CTfastrak on Real Estate and Urban Economic Development: Phase 2

The long-term objective (in “Phase 2”) is to examine the question: How has CTfastrak become capitalized into property values? The crucial steps to meeting this long-term objective will be addressed now in “Phase 2” are: (1) Determine what data is currently available for collection in “Phase 2”. (2) Examine the conditions between the time of the commencement of CTfastrak service in March 2015, and March 2020. Also, this objective will necessitate a thorough update of the literature review of BRT studies. Hartford Line project updates: There is also potential value to updating the Hartford Line final report to include a literature review that is in a similar format as the CTfastrak Phase 2 literature review. This update will be done as a part of this Task 2. (3) Collect the updated data necessary to examine how property value changes are correlated with proximity to the CTfastrak stations. Hartford Line project updates: In an effort to maintain some consistency between the Hartford Line final report and the CTfastrak Phase 2 report, similar information up to a 2-mile radius from each station (i.e., 0.25 miles, 0.5 miles, 1 mile and 2 miles) will be compiled into Tables and added to the Hartford Line final report. (4) Collect the updated data needed to examine how property value changes are correlated with changes in travel costs, and updated data needed to determine how sale price and/or property value changes are correlated with travel time changes. Hartford Line project updates: There is significant value to using similar methodologies for both the CTFastrak Phase 2 and the Hartford Line projects, for comparison purposes. For this travel time/travel cost task, the Hartford Line project final report needs to be updated to match the format of the CTFastrak Phase 2 project, the latter of which uses superior methodologies and will be used for analysis in subsequent phases of both projects. (5) Gather updated data that will be useful in “controlling” for general price movements. In this “Phase 2”, this will enable distinguishing between changes in property values due to CTfastrak versus other unrelated factors, such as general inflation and/or general fluctuations in real estate prices in the Metro-Hartford area and in Connecticut. (6) Obtain updated assessed residential property values for the subsequent years after what had been collected in Phase 1. (7) Determine the current levels of local property tax revenues that accrue to the municipalities where the CTfastrak stations are located. (8) Address the questions: 1) What is the number of dwelling units within a range of reasonable distances from the stations at the time of the announcement and at the start of CTfastrak service?; 2) What share of these are rental properties, and what share are considered “affordable housing”?; and, 3) How have these changed between 2015 and 2020? (9) Collect updated information on total building square footage within a given radius of the bus stations, and use this updated information to examine how these have changed since Phase 1. (10) Investigate what are the current plans/proposals for new real estate development. How have the number of plans near each station changed in 2020 compared with 2015? (11) Collect the updated data, beyond what was gathered in Phase 1, needed for this “Phase 2” analysis on how the cleanup of the land where a former police station and welding facility are located has affected nearby property values. Then, perform a statistical analysis to determine the impacts of the cleanup on property values. (12) Examine the Role of Vacancies. Collect data to determine the vacancy rates in the Census tracts near the CTfastrak stations. How have these vacancy rates changed between 2015 and 2020? (13) Aerial Photography and/or Remote Sensing. Obtain an updated snapshot of land use in the neighborhoods near the stations from the most recent time period available. (14) Geospatial Database. To the extent possible, data will be compiled in a parcel-level geospatial database, and merged with the data collected in Phase 1. This geospatial database will be set up in a manner that will facilitate easy tracking of changes in parcels between Phase 1 and Phase 2 (use, change in use, building type and square footage, sales, sale prices, assessed values, etc.), and it will be possible to query the database to obtain desired information. CTI at UCONN has the production environment to host this geospatial database, so it will be hosted there. Hartford Line project updates: The parcel-level geospatial database from the Hartford Line project will be updated to reflect any changes that are to be made in any of the Hartford Line tasks from the revisions to the Hartford Line work as described in various tasks above. (15) Data Analyses. The techniques of regression analysis will be used to determine the relationships between property values as the dependent variable (sales prices, from #3 above, and separately, assessed values, from #6 above), and the independent variables, which will include some combination of change in travel costs/time (from #4 above), changes in neighborhood vacancy rates (from #12 above), distance from the stations (near vs far, from #3 above), before vs. after CTfastrak started operating. Two separate sets of regressions will be run, one using sales prices changes as the dependent variable, and the other using assessed value changes as the dependent variable. The sales price and assessed value data will be adjusted using the inflation factor from #5 above, to control for general price changes. In addition, from #11 above, an analysis of how proximity to brownfields that were cleaned up impacts property values will be conducted. The intention of including this aspect in Phase 1 was to determine if the brownfields that were cleaned up shortly before CTfastrak started service had any impact on property values. Also, in a separate analysis, a spatial correlation measure will be applied to the data, to estimate how the accrued real estate wealth in some properties may spill over to nearby properties.

Language

• English

Project

• Status: Active
• Funding: $306,571
• Contract Numbers:

  SPR-2320

• Sponsor Organizations:

  Connecticut Department of Transportation

  2800 Berlin Turnpike
  P. O. Box 317546
  Newington, CT  United States  06131-7546
• Managing Organizations:

  Connecticut Department of Transportation

  2800 Berlin Turnpike
  P. O. Box 317546
  Newington, CT  United States  06131-7546
• Project Managers:

  Zimyeski, Melanie

• Performing Organizations:

  University of Connecticut, Storrs

  Center for Real Estate and Urban Economic Studies, School of Business
  2100 Hillside Road, Unit 1041RE
  Storrs, CT  United States  06269-1041
• Principal Investigators:

  Cohen, Jeffrey

• Start Date: 20200301
• Expected Completion Date: 20230630
• Actual Completion Date: 0

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Before and after studies; Bus rapid transit; Economic development; Property values
• Identifier Terms: CTfastrak
• Geographic Terms: Hartford (Connecticut)
• Subject Areas: Economics; Finance; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01853895
• Record Type: Research project
• Source Agency: Connecticut Department of Transportation
• Contract Numbers: SPR-2320
• Files: RIP, STATEDOT
• Created Date: Aug 2 2022 5:50PM