Florida's Transportation Revenue Forecasting and Allocation Process and Modeling - Phase I

Phase I focuses on developing models to better understand the forces that will affect future transportation-related revenues in the state of Florida and delineating the whole process and concerns of allocating the revenue to Districts and metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs). A follow-on phase of research would develop a methodology that link state’s revenue allocation with statewide mobility and network connectivity by using the statewide transportation demand model (FSUTMS). The purpose is to evaluate the impacts of funded and non-funded projects in the Work Program to quantify the impacts of transportation revenue changes on the state’s transportation and mobility system. First, the objective of the Phase I project is to develop models to better understand a variety of factors, including vehicle technology, energy sources, demographic shifts, and land use changes, that affect future transportation-related revenues in Florida and to document/develop a process to better allocate this revenue to Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) districts and MPOs. Specifically, the following questions are to be addressed: (1) What makes up a transportation revenue (e.g., gas tax percent, documentary stamp percent, rental car fees percent, etc.) and how may these revenue sources fluctuate over time? (2) How to model and quantify the changes in demographics, travel behaviors, land use patterns, telecommunications, new vehicle technologies and adoption rates, and fuel economy profiles in the next 15, 20, 25 years, to provide the foundation to forecast transportation related revenues in the future? (3) What are the different options to compensate revenue losses, how to quantify the revenue changes in different options or scenarios, and how to assess the pros and cons as well as the feasibility of each option? (4) What is the current process of allocating state transportation funding to Districts and MPOs and how to improve it in an efficient manner by incorporating participatory discussions from staffs in Districts and MPOs by incorporating the State Revenue Estimating Conference approach and other considerations? This project intends to achieve the following two benefits: (1) A better understanding and qualification of factors that affect transportation-related revenue would help FDOT to forecast future transportation revenues more accurately, which would help FDOT have more realistic budget options to make more informed plans about the state’s future infrastructure investment under different scenarios. (2) A better understanding of the current process and concerns of allocating transportation funds to Districts and MPOs, and a participatory approach to modify the process can help improve the fund allocation process and enhance transparency by considering demands, impacts, cost-efficiency, and spatial equity.

Language

• English

Project

• Status: Active
• Funding: $343407
• Contract Numbers:

  BED31 977-10

• Sponsor Organizations:

  Florida Department of Transportation

  Research Center
  605 Suwannee Street MS-30
  Tallahassee, FL  United States  32399-0450
• Managing Organizations:

  Florida Department of Transportation

  Research Center
  605 Suwannee Street MS-30
  Tallahassee, FL  United States  32399-0450
• Project Managers:

  Tabatabaee, Frank

• Performing Organizations:

  University of Florida

  219 Grinter Hall
  Gainesville, Fl  United States  32611
• Principal Investigators:

  Peng, Zhong-Ren

• Start Date: 20220617
• Expected Completion Date: 20240131
• Actual Completion Date: 0

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Financing; Forecasting; Resource allocation; Revenues; Travel demand
• Geographic Terms: Florida
• Subject Areas: Finance; Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General);

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01848855
• Record Type: Research project
• Source Agency: Florida Department of Transportation
• Contract Numbers: BED31 977-10
• Files: RIP, STATEDOT
• Created Date: Jun 20 2022 7:30AM