Guidance for Agencies to Incorporate Uncertainty into Long-Range Transportation Planning
NCHRP Research Report 1168: Incorporating Uncertainty into Long-Range Transportation Planning: A Guide presents strategies to assist state departments of transportation (DOTs) with incorporating uncertainty into their long-range transportation planning processes. The guide provides suggestions on plan scoping, development, implementation, and capacity building. It was developed based on an extensive review of literature and practice and documents sources of uncertainty, decision-making frameworks, data and methods, and the regulatory context. The information contained in the guide will be of immediate interest to transportation planners and decision-makers. The findings will serve as a valuable resource for state DOTs and other public transportation agencies. For decades, state DOTs and metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) have developed long-range transportation and capital investment plans as required by federal law to ensure the plans meet future and forecasted needs. These plans have anticipated trends and considered uncertainty, however, state DOTs and MPOs are facing new and compounding uncertainties that are difficult to consider, forecast, or fully understand. These challenges, coupled with additional regulatory requirements, have resulted in transportation planning and programming becoming more complex inside more constrained processes. With limited tools at their disposal to help understand uncertainty, including how to utilize methods such as scenario planning, robust decision-making, and risk analysis tools, research was needed to identify points in processes where flexibility exists and how state DOTs and MPOs can better consider uncertainty. NCHRP Project 08-154, “Guidance for Agencies to Incorporate Uncertainty into Long-Range Transportation Planning,” EBP US, Inc. was asked to develop a guide that identifies how, when, where, and why uncertainty should be considered in state DOT and MPO planning and programming processes, with strategies to adapt plans and communicate with stakeholders and decision-makers. The research included a literature review and scan of practice, outreach to the community of practice, case example development, and a peer exchange.
- Record URL:
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Supplemental Notes:
- In addition to the guide published as NCHRP Research Report 1168, the following materials (A summary handout; An implementation memo; A summary presentation; A self-evaluation worksheet) are available on the National Academies Press website (nationalacademies.org/publications) by searching for NCHRP Research Report 1168: Incorporating Uncertainty into Long-Range Transportation Planning: A Guide. Final status: Published as NCHRP Research Report 1168 and can be accessed at: https://doi.org/10.17226/29355.
Language
- English
Project
- Funding: $600,000.00
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Contract Numbers:
Project 08-154
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Sponsor Organizations:
National Cooperative Highway Research Program
Transportation Research Board
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC United States 20001American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO)
444 North Capitol Street, NW
Washington, DC United States 20001Federal Highway Administration
1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
Washington, DC United States 20590 -
Project Managers:
Wadsworth, Trey
- Performing Organizations: Boston, MA United States
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Principal Investigators:
Stein, Naomi
- Start Date: 20220831
- Expected Completion Date: 20250830
- Actual Completion Date: 20250830
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Guidelines; Long range planning; Metropolitan planning organizations; State departments of transportation; Transportation planning; Uncertainty
- Subject Areas: Administration and Management; Highways; Planning and Forecasting;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01772464
- Record Type: Research project
- Source Agency: Transportation Research Board
- Contract Numbers: Project 08-154
- Files: TRB, RIP
- Created Date: May 25 2021 3:49PM