Estimating county to county transportation and trade flow

The goal of this research is to develop a trade model to estimate foreign and domestic county-to-county and county-to-port commodity shipments. It is important to understand the mobility of goods across counties and to ports to better understand how shocks to supply chains will disrupt regional economies. This research will also enable a better understanding of regional economic resilience in relation to supply chains and the movement of goods. Previous research conducted by the PIs has estimated commodity supply and commodity demand for each county in the United States using numerous government datasets. This research will build on that research and develop a doubly constrained gravity model that estimates both where the supply of each county’s commodity output is consumed and where the place of origin for the commodities demanded in each county. The naive approach would be to assume that all commodities produced in a region are consumed in that region, at least up to the point where local demand is satiated. However, we know that “cross hauling” exists where two goods that are at least at some level classified as the same commodity are both imported and exported from the same region.


  • English


  • Status: Active
  • Funding: $80000
  • Contract Numbers:


  • Sponsor Organizations:

    Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

    University Transportation Centers Program
    Department of Transportation
    Washington, DC  United States  20590
  • Managing Organizations:

    Pacific Northwest Transportation Consortium

    University of Washington
    More Hall Room 112
    Seattle, WA  United States  98195-2700
  • Project Managers:

    Lowry, Michael

  • Performing Organizations:

    University of Idaho, Moscow

    Department of Civil Engineering
    P.O. Box 441022
    Moscow, ID  United States  83844-1022
  • Principal Investigators:

    Lowry, Michael

  • Start Date: 20200816
  • Expected Completion Date: 20220815
  • Actual Completion Date: 0
  • USDOT Program: University Transportation Centers Program

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01764464
  • Record Type: Research project
  • Source Agency: Pacific Northwest Transportation Consortium
  • Contract Numbers: 69A3551747110
  • Files: UTC, RIP
  • Created Date: Feb 4 2021 10:41PM