Incorporating Crash Severity and Continuous improvement of SHIFT

The Strategic Highway Investment Formula for Tomorrow (SHIFT) is the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet's (KYTC) data-informed approach for comparing capital improvement projects to help prioritize limited transportation funds. SHIFT 2022 will incorporate more advances in methods and flexibility. This project will help KYTC staff further refine SHIFT and improve the formula’s safety components. The current version of SHIFT uses all crashes to compute excess expected crashes (EECs) for prioritizing projects. All crashes are not equal, and locations with a higher proportion of severe (fatal and injury) crashes currently receive the same weight as locations with an equal number of property damage only crashes. However, the use of only fatal and serious crashes presents a small-statistics problem where variability limits the reliability of future crash estimates. The EPDO technique (computation of an equivalent number of property damage only crashes that uses higher weights for more severe crashes) is not easily integrated into the Empirical Bayes (EB) method used to compute EEC. This project will develop a combined EPDO and EB method for use in SHIFT 2022.

Language

• English

Project

• Status: Completed
• Funding: $80000
• Contract Numbers:

  KYSPR 21-603

• Sponsor Organizations:

  Kentucky Transportation Cabinet

  200 Mero Street
  Frankfort, KY  United States  40622
• Performing Organizations:

  University of Kentucky, Lexington

  Kentucky Transportation Center College of Engineering, 176 Raymond Building
  Lexington, KY  United States  40506-0281
• Principal Investigators:

  Staats, William

  Souleyrette, Reg

• Start Date: 20200200
• Expected Completion Date: 20200210
• Actual Completion Date: 0

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Bayes' theorem; Capital investments; Crash severity; Highways; Improvements; Methodology; Resource allocation; Strategic planning
• Identifier Terms: Kentucky Transportation Cabinet
• Subject Areas: Administration and Management; Finance; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01751317
• Record Type: Research project
• Source Agency: University of Kentucky, Lexington
• Contract Numbers: KYSPR 21-603
• Files: RIP, STATEDOT
• Created Date: Sep 3 2020 2:47PM