Flood-Frequency Analysis in the Midwest: Addressing Potential Nonstationary Annual Peak-Flow Records
The overall goal of this study is to evaluate the combined effects of multidecadal climatic persistence (including hydroclimatic shifts), gradual climate change, and land-use change on peak-flow frequency analyses in the multi-state region in the Midwest. This study is intended to provide a framework for addressing potential nonstationarity issues in statewide flood-frequency updates that commonly are conducted by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with state DOTs throughout the nation on an ongoing basis. This will be achieved through the following primary objectives: (1) Define spatial and temporal characteristics of climatic persistence/change affecting annual peak flows in the multi-state region. (2) Develop and apply a statistical methodology for estimating changes in peak-flow frequency distributions in the multi-state region in relation to climatic persistence/change and urbanization; the effects of rural and land-use change will only be investigated in an exploratory manner. (3) Investigate methods for addressing regional climatic persistence/change and land-use change in peak-flow frequency analysis. To the extent possible, estimates of trend-adjusted flood magnitudes for various exceedance levels (such as the 10-percent or 1-percent annual exceedance probability) will be provided for comparison to previously published estimates.
- Record URL:
Language
- English
Project
- Status: Programmed
- Funding: $1556800
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Contract Numbers:
TPF-5(460)
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Sponsor Organizations:
Illinois Department of Transportation
2300 S. Dirksen Parkway
Springfield, IL United States 62764Iowa Department of Transportation
800 Lincoln Way
Ames, IA United States 50010Michigan Department of Transportation
Van Wagoner Building
425 W. Ottawa Street
Lansing, MI United States 48909Minnesota Department of Transportation
Transportation Building
395 John Ireland Boulevard
St Paul, MN United States 55155Missouri Department of Transportation
1617 Missouri Blvd.
P.O. Box 270
Jefferson City, MO United States 65102South Dakota Department of Transportation
700 East Broadway Avenue
Pierre, SD United States 57501Wisconsin Department of Transportation
PO Box 7910
4802 Sheboygan Avenue, Room 104
Madison, WI United States 53707-7910Montana Department of Natural Resources & Conservation
1424 9th Avenue
Helena, MT United States -
Managing Organizations:
South Dakota Department of Transportation
700 East Broadway Avenue
Pierre, SD United States 57501 -
Project Managers:
Huft, David
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Performing Organizations:
United States Geological Survey
P.O. Box 6200-27
Portland, OR United States 97228-6200 -
Principal Investigators:
Ryberg, Karen
- Start Date: 20240719
- Expected Completion Date: 0
- Actual Completion Date: 0
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Climate change; Floods; Forecasting; Land use; Statistical analysis
- Geographic Terms: Midwest United States
- Subject Areas: Environment; Hydraulics and Hydrology; Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General);
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01747750
- Record Type: Research project
- Source Agency: Federal Highway Administration
- Contract Numbers: TPF-5(460)
- Files: RIP, USDOT, STATEDOT
- Created Date: Aug 12 2020 8:04PM