Flood-Frequency Analysis in the Midwest: Addressing Potential Nonstationary Annual Peak-Flow Records

The overall goal of this study is to evaluate the combined effects of multidecadal climatic persistence (including hydroclimatic shifts), gradual climate change, and land-use change on peak-flow frequency analyses in the multi-state region in the Midwest. This study is intended to provide a framework for addressing potential nonstationarity issues in statewide flood-frequency updates that commonly are conducted by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with state DOTs throughout the nation on an ongoing basis. This will be achieved through the following primary objectives: (1) Define spatial and temporal characteristics of climatic persistence/change affecting annual peak flows in the multi-state region. (2) Develop and apply a statistical methodology for estimating changes in peak-flow frequency distributions in the multi-state region in relation to climatic persistence/change and urbanization; the effects of rural and land-use change will only be investigated in an exploratory manner. (3) Investigate methods for addressing regional climatic persistence/change and land-use change in peak-flow frequency analysis. To the extent possible, estimates of trend-adjusted flood magnitudes for various exceedance levels (such as the 10-percent or 1-percent annual exceedance probability) will be provided for comparison to previously published estimates.

• Record URL:
  http://www.pooledfund.org/Details/Study/687

Language

• English

Project

• Status: Programmed
• Funding: $1556800
• Contract Numbers:

  TPF-5(460)

• Sponsor Organizations:

  Illinois Department of Transportation

  2300 S. Dirksen Parkway
  Springfield, IL  United States  62764

  Iowa Department of Transportation

  800 Lincoln Way
  Ames, IA  United States  50010

  Michigan Department of Transportation

  Van Wagoner Building
  425 W. Ottawa Street
  Lansing, MI  United States  48909

  Minnesota Department of Transportation

  Transportation Building
  395 John Ireland Boulevard
  St Paul, MN  United States  55155

  Missouri Department of Transportation

  1617 Missouri Blvd.
  P.O. Box 270
  Jefferson City, MO  United States  65102

  South Dakota Department of Transportation

  700 East Broadway Avenue
  Pierre, SD  United States  57501

  Wisconsin Department of Transportation

  PO Box 7910
  4802 Sheboygan Avenue, Room 104
  Madison, WI  United States  53707-7910

  Montana Department of Natural Resources & Conservation

  1424 9th Avenue
  Helena, MT  United States 
• Managing Organizations:

  South Dakota Department of Transportation

  700 East Broadway Avenue
  Pierre, SD  United States  57501
• Project Managers:

  Huft, David

• Performing Organizations:

  United States Geological Survey

  P.O. Box 6200-27
  Portland, OR  United States  97228-6200
• Principal Investigators:

  Ryberg, Karen

• Start Date: 20240719
• Expected Completion Date: 0
• Actual Completion Date: 0

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Climate change; Floods; Forecasting; Land use; Statistical analysis
• Geographic Terms: Midwest United States
• Subject Areas: Environment; Hydraulics and Hydrology; Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General);

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01747750
• Record Type: Research project
• Source Agency: Federal Highway Administration
• Contract Numbers: TPF-5(460)
• Files: RIP, USDOT, STATEDOT
• Created Date: Aug 12 2020 8:04PM