RES2020-18: Developing Statewide Land Use Forecasting Model and Integrate with TDOT's Statewide Travel Demand Model

In this research, a statewide forecasting land-use model is presented. The land-use model is called the LargeScale Land Use Model (LS-LUM) and can be integrated with Tennessee Statewide Travel Demand Model (TSM v3). Massive data collection was followed in this project and households’ information, employment information, housing information was collected at the Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) level. Moreover, parcel data for 94 counties were collected to be incorporated into the model. The model is developed for the base year 2010 and forecasts the demographic and socio-economic condition of the state of Tennessee from 2015 to 2050 with five years intervals. The developed model is validated using the backcasting approach and the goodness of fit and error measures are provided to show the accuracy of the model. To present the result of the model, an online dashboard is created providing forecasting results from 2015 to 2050 at TAZ and County levels Moreover, the online dashboard presents a brief statistical analysis. The developed land-use model is integrated with TSM v3 and results are provided. Since the model incorporates house conditions (total houses and vacant houses) and land use conditions in each TAZ (residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, and developable lands), it provides a powerful tool for policy analysis. A software is developed for running the model using MATLAB Compiler Runtime, which enables sharing the model with other parties.

• Record URL:
  https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/tdot/long-range-planning/research/final-reports/2020-final-reports-and-summaries/RES2020-18_Final_Report_Approved.pdf

Language

• English

Project

• Status: Completed
• Funding: $247609
• Contract Numbers:

  RES2020-18

  40100-07219

• Sponsor Organizations:

  Tennessee Department of Transportation

  James K. Polk Building
  Fifth and Deaderick Street
  Nashville, TN  United States  37243-0349
• Managing Organizations:

  University of Memphis

  Memphis, TN  United States 
• Project Managers:

  Flores, Ty

• Performing Organizations:

  University of Memphis

  Memphis, TN  United States 

  University of Tennessee, Knoxville

  Knoxville, TN  United States 
• Principal Investigators:

  Mishra, Sabyasachee

  Golias, Mihalis

  Everett, Jerry

  Noltenius, Melany

• Start Date: 20190801
• Expected Completion Date: 20211231
• Actual Completion Date: 0
• USDOT Program: Transportation, Planning, Research, and Development

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Case studies; Data collection; Land use models; Metropolitan planning organizations; Socioeconomic factors; Traffic analysis zones; Urban growth
• Identifier Terms: Congestion Management Toolkit; PECAS (Computer model); UrbanSim (Computer model)
• Subject Areas: Economics; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Policy;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01744403
• Record Type: Research project
• Source Agency: Tennessee Department of Transportation
• Contract Numbers: RES2020-18, 40100-07219
• Files: RIP, STATEDOT
• Created Date: Jun 29 2020 2:12PM