Impacts of Connected Vehicles and Automated Vehicles on State and Local Transportation Agencies--Task-Order Support. Realistic Timing Estimates for Automated Vehicle Implementation

The integration of automated vehicle (AV) technology into surface transportation is expected to reduce environmental impacts and enhance the movement of people and goods in the United States. While there has been significant growth in the development of AV, however, issues related to cybersecurity, data privacy, connectivity, and operating system maintenance costs contribute to its complexity and there is great uncertainty about the rate of deployment. Transportation agencies planning for AV implementation need realistic implementation timelines to aid decision-making. They need to identify a range of estimates—from optimistic to conservative—of market introduction and growth profiles for a broad range of the representative automated driving services that account for limiting factors such as rate of advancement in technologies, level of effort needed to expand operational design domains for each AV application, and the time and conditions for users to adopt new technologies. The objectives of this research were to (1) identify influencing factors and risks that affect the timing of the deployment of the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) Level 4 AV technologies, described in SAE J3016, in diverse scenarios; (2) define the operational concept and input parameters for a decision-making model that will estimate deployment timeframes; and (3) develop recommendations for how and at what frequency a model and its parameters should be updated. NCHRP Research Report 1049 Realistic Timing Estimates for Automated Vehicle Implementation and a PowerPoint presentation describing the research effort are available on the TRB webpage.


  • English


  • Status: Completed
  • Funding: $149874
  • Contract Numbers:

    Project 20-102(27)

  • Sponsor Organizations:

    National Cooperative Highway Research Program

    Transportation Research Board
    500 Fifth Street, NW
    Washington, DC  United States  20001

    Federal Highway Administration

    1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
    Washington, DC  United States  20590

    American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO)

    444 North Capitol Street, NW
    Washington, DC  United States  20001
  • Project Managers:

    Crichton-Sumners, Camille

  • Performing Organizations:


    One Penn Plaza
    250 W 34th Street
    New York, New York  United States  10119
  • Principal Investigators:

    Kuciemba, Steve

  • Start Date: 20210629
  • Expected Completion Date: 20220929
  • Actual Completion Date: 20220929

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01719242
  • Record Type: Research project
  • Source Agency: Transportation Research Board
  • Contract Numbers: Project 20-102(27)
  • Files: TRB, RIP
  • Created Date: Oct 8 2019 11:34PM