Development of Crash Prediction Models for Short-Term Durations

The objectives of this research were to: (1) develop short-term crash prediction models to estimate the safety performance of roadways. Consideration should be given to specific geometric, operational, and exposure characteristics (e.g., detours, variable speed limits), and routes that experience short-term capacity changes (e.g., hard shoulder running, reversible lanes). (2) Identify explanatory variables measured over short durations. Include more precise measures of exposure other than annual average daily traffic (AADT) (e.g., peak hour volume, special event volume), and factors such as speed (including speed variability) to help predict crashes for varied periods of time. (3) Develop an implementation tool suitable for practitioner use.

• Record URL:
  http://apps.trb.org/cmsfeed/TRBNetProjectDisplay.asp?ProjectID=4780

Language

• English

Project

• Status: Completed
• Funding: $650000
• Contract Numbers:

  Project 22-48

• Sponsor Organizations:

  National Cooperative Highway Research Program

  Transportation Research Board
  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001

  American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO)

  444 North Capitol Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001

  Federal Highway Administration

  1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Project Managers:

  Crichton-Sumners, Camille

• Performing Organizations:

  University of Central Florida, Orlando

  12201 Research Parkway, Suite 501
  Orlando, FL  United States  32826-0150
• Principal Investigators:

  Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

• Start Date: 20200720
• Expected Completion Date: 20230116
• Actual Completion Date: 20230116

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Annual average daily traffic; Crash rates; Crash risk forecasting; Highway safety; Methodology; Predictive models; Time periods; Traffic speed
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01707549
• Record Type: Research project
• Source Agency: Transportation Research Board
• Contract Numbers: Project 22-48
• Files: TRB, RIP
• Created Date: Jun 5 2019 12:55PM